A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

The Euro The Euro is now on par with the US dollar. Many think the Euro won't recover. But it can play havoc with tech services companies. Commodities expert Carly Garner believes the Euro will recover. In 2008, the Euro was trading at $1.60, but within that year it collapsed to $1.23. The Euro has been $1.05-1.20 in the past 10 years. The Euro could fall a little more before rebounding. Garner predicts a swift rally when the direction shifts. Commodities and even bonds are finally starting to normalize and this will trickle into the Euro. He sees oversold signals. The higher the Euro goes, the stronger US companies can compete overseas; the Euro and S&P have a strong correlation. Also, seasonality points to a Euro low in early July (now) then rises to a high in early October. Also historically there are volatility spikes right before the Euro bottoms--and that is happening now.

gold The dollar got strong; gold got crushed. Gold is still good, but it's a hedge in the same way that he likes oil.

We're seeing maturity in this part of the cycle with extreme negative sentiment. Markets have given back over 20% in the first half of 2022. History shows that 6-12 months later are significantly higher. It's naive to call a bottom now, but safe to say that much of the damage has been done. A lot of speculative excesses have gone away as well as those speculators, leaving investors to focus on stocks with earnings.

He remains optimistic and still sees a soft landing, based on revenue and employment data while the supply chain is a little better domestically. He sees no recession. He doesn't know if we've hit bottom, but there are interesting buying opportunities. Buy some. You won't make money in bonds. He expects 50 then 25 basis points higher by the Fed. We'll learn to live with Covid. The underlying economy remains strong.

healthcare It's an okay place to be. Many companies have good balance sheets. Wait just in case there's another pandemic. He's weighted at 20% of his portfolio.

No price is safe. Nothing can get too low as analysts fight each other to downgrade. To the bears, nothing matters except to get out before the other guy. Tech, especially, gets non-stop hate every single day aimed at semis and internet stocks--they have been too hard hit. But he feels more constructive about this market than a month ago. He foresees slower consumer data, then the Fed reversing itself.

Technical analyst Larry Williams Commercial hedgers (who buy the futures regularly). Williams says the hedgers have the best understanding of their sector. They're not always right but have an edge over the public and money managers. Despite all the gloom, Williams likes what he sees in the market. Based on DJ industrial average futures and other data since 2009: At market bottoms, commercial hedgers tend to be bullish while the money managers and public are bearish. When the going gets tough, the CH's go long.

Watch second quarter earnings closely. They will give a good clue to investors re earnings trajectories for the rest of the year and 2023. The correction we're in provides opportunities to buy high quality growth stocks with mid single digit multiples regardless of when the market bottoms. We could see a recession but the market will bottom before it happens.

Doesn't believe economy has entered into recession. Emotional fear of recession major concern, not the actual fundamentals of the market. If US Fed raises rates too high & too fast - could tip economy into recession.

Believes equity markets have not priced a recession into markets. Would buy into the market if S&P 500 goes to ~3800 mark. S&P 500 @ 3300 would be great buying opportunity. Is looking into buying healthcare (aging baby boomers) and banking stocks.

Today's jobs report was better than expected. He does not agree that good news is bad news (strong employment is bad news). Sure, we worry about inflation, but he sees a soft landing by the US Fed. For more than a bear market rally, the Fed needs to back off and it won't until inflation weakens. Next week comes more inflation data. All rallies are suspect until there is lower inflation, but he feels that inflation has indeed peaked. Inflation should be well on the way down in a couple months. He projects the S&P to finish at 4,896 by year's end.

She predicts the Fed to hike more than 50 points, based on the Fed's signals. The Fed needs to hike 75. Wage growth is starting to trend lower despite ongoing 3% unemployment. The former will effect margins in the back half of the year. Probably stocks will be up 1-2 years from now.

tech stocks She owns all the FAANGs. There will be lower GDP growth, which will mean a rotation from cyclicals to traditional growth stocks. But be careful. Secular growth in the US will be driven differently this time. Focus on companies that help other companies become more efficient. Don't limit yourself to software. Also, tech will be hit by currency concerns.

Markets. It's the beginning of putting in a bottom. We put in a bottom in June. We'll consolidate here for a while, maybe with a lift for a bit, and go sideways for a time. If you look at previous bottoms, there's a theme: put in a bottom, consolidate and go sideways, and hopefully the next down move won't be followed by breadth in the market.