Paul Harris, CFAA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA CommentaryCOMMENTDec 24, 2025

He looks at a number of factors to determine market direction. It was mainly the technology sector that experienced a summer swoon. Luckily some of the other sectors held up, such as financials and healthcare. At the end of July and early August, everything has come back together. 

That's a really good sign for the market. It means that there's strength elsewhere than in just technology.

He also looks at credit markets, which aren't showing fear or widening spreads. Interest rates have been a big story this year -- expected decreases flipping to potential increases. There's still a buffer there to decrease if things go off the rails with the economy. Lastly, we have low volatility. There's a saying: "Never short a dull market." When volatility dies down and markets seem to be trending higher, that's not the time to get out.

That was part of the tech swoon. Hyperscalers came out with good earnings, but there are concerns on the capex side. This is a really big investment cycle, and the market acknowledges that these are big numbers but can see them working out over time with monetization. They also have massive cloud revenues to back up spending.

Canadian market's been on a tear for the last 2 years. Right spot, right time. We have lots of energy, financials, and materials. He hopes we can do more to access those and bring them to other markets. We're really firing on all cylinders in Canada. It's our time to shine.

Sees that persisting. The banks are getting high on valuation. Don't mess with the trend. If the trend is higher, you keep going.

Fair question. He might have a market outlook and thinks he's right. But what if he's not? His team always grounds itself in asset allocation. If something's run up, they take some profits and put them into fixed income. 

Investors can suffer from recency bias. Times have been good, so why shouldn't they continue? Protect against that by taking profits along the way.

The US doesn't recognize TFSAs the way it does RRSPs. So you can hold ETFs in your TFSA, just make sure you know which ones serve the right purpose. Stick to the mainstream ETFs such as XIU, XIC, and S&P 500 ones.

Remains very constructive on equity markets. A lot of the story now is the earnings power of the S&P 500, which has become the real market driver. Seeing almost unprecedented earnings growth forecasts going forward. Strong earnings mean a strong market.

We're in a major capital spending cycle, with the beneficiaries being data centres, chips, cloud, power, utilities, industrials, and automation. Those sectors are the parts of the market that are moving higher. 

If you look at the cash component sitting on the sidelines in money markets, it's north of $7.9T in USD. If the geopolitical situation becomes more stable, and if earnings continue to be strong, then some of that $7.9T can rotate into risk assets like equities.

Still some cross-currents to be careful of. Somewhat sticky inflation, elevated long-term bond yields, oil volatility can pop back up, geopolitical situation can toughen up a bit. Seasonally, September could be a softer month. And then US midterms are coming up.

The inflation numbers have been somewhat benign. Expectations for a rate hike have been pushed out. The interest rate environment is beneficial. Oil prices coming down from peaks would be a tailwind for equities. Any volatility from geopolitics, September weakness, and midterms is normal and not thesis-changing.

Probably won't see lower rates in the near future. Likely flat for the time being. 

Going back to 1950, midterm election years tend to have about a 15% drawdown. We had a 9% drawdown earlier this year, which was a pretty heavy almost-correction. September, right before the midterms, is also seasonally soft. Over the last 10 years, on average, September is a negative month. He wouldn't be surprised to see sideways movement or a bit of a pullback before those elections. 

One thing to note is that the 6-12 months after midterms tends to be the strongest period in the 4-year presidential cycle. 

Oil prices are a wild card, as it really depends what's happening in the world. Looking at futures markets, oil is expected to come down to the $70 level. It did come down, but then went back up.

Base case is that things will continue to be resolved as time goes by. Oil prices should calm down into the $70s.

Likes Mexico for the idea of near-shoring back to the US. South Korea ETFs are a nice place to be, if you're OK with the volatility (things move very quickly). 

But he tends to focus on regions, not specific countries. His firm owns emerging market, equity, and international ETFs. They don't usually get too granular on specific countries, as they prefer to buy individual names rather than individual countries.

Selectively, you want to be in technology. Industrials -- given the manufacturing resurgence in the US, reshoring, data centre buildout, and creating a more powerful electrical grid. Certain, specific areas of healthcare. US financials are good value, too.

He's been getting a lot of questions about covered call strategies. The attraction of a very high yield has interested a lot of  investors. But you really need to understand your objectives as an investor. 

If you're looking particularly for income, and tax-efficient at that, covered call strategies can make sense. On the flipside, they tend to underperform the underlying securities in a rising market. You earn a premium from the options, but you get struck out as stock prices reach those option prices.

When markets are falling, covered calls can provide a bit of a buffer. They can give you a better return than the underlying securities. In a falling market, though, you probably want to be out of that security altogether.

So it really depends on the goal of the portfolio. For long-term growth, just buy a regular ETF with equity exposure. If you're looking for income in a taxable account, then you could consider covered call strategies.

Duration bonds are a great way to grow core safely. They haven't kept up with inflation though. For cash flow, long-duration bonds have been horrific for investors. But use covered calls--gives you equity exposure and create a 7-9% annual yield--if you seek cash.

A few factors are really contributing to inflation. The first is energy prices and what's going on with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The second thing is the AI infrastructure buildout in the US. Both those things are creating price spikes in certain commodities and pushing inflation up. 

This puts the US Fed in an awkward position. Recent employment numbers weren't as strong as anticipated. There's speculation in the market as to how hawkish the Fed will be. If you look at the Fed's stated goal of 2% inflation, they've been above that for more than 5 years. So there's some pressure on them and the new chairman to curtail that. 

The market's sitting on edge on whether rates will be held steady or be reduced. That translates into a lot of volatility.