Opinions Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA CommentaryCOMMENTFeb 10, 2025
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAYou might be interested:
The message, loud and clear, in recent weeks of earnings is the market is becoming more selective. Companies that delivered that earnings that would have been exceptional a year ago, are now facing pressure--strong earnings are no longer enough, but also need to justify high valuations, sustainable profitable, and a tangible return on AI. That enthusiasm about AI has shifted to seeing returns on investment and cash flows. This is healthy for the broader market, happening during surprising resilient economic growth. However, there's rising inflation above the US's 2% target. She's looking at companies' underlying cash flow and watching the bond market. Overall, the market looks constructive and you don't need to be defensive.
Based on polls, it looks like Trump will lose the House which will turn him into a lame duck president, then he will default to more executive orders. Meanwhile, central banks will keep raising interest rates. Yesterday, Google got hit, so the market is asking who will pay for AI. Overall, he's trimming and pull back, including Google after more than doubling, energy and precious metal.
For new money, telcos (as well as REITs and other sectors) have been hit as interest rates keep rising. The telcos, though, have aleady cut dividends, so they are relatively defensive. Getting more income into your portfolio now makes sense. So these sectors act like a bond proxy, which are buys.
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The market expected today's Bank of Canada interest rate hike to 2.5%, given rising inflation fueled by rising energy prices from the U.S.-Iran war. It probably won't impact the TSX much because the index is heavily weighted in commodities and financials, which may actually benefit from higher rates. The hike follows the U.S. one. AI stocks are driving the market and there's a lack of market breadth. About half the S&P is tied to AI and data centres. But two-thirds of the S&P are trading below their 50-day moving average, mostly those not linked to AI, but that's where opportunities lie. He also likes energy.
The market is volatile. Everyday there is a sector or theme that works: one day AI works, the next AI isn't working, then it's energy or the hyperscalers, then not. We're all slaves to the algo trading and causes people to lose focus on long-term investing. He doesn't trade every two seconds; he focuses on the fundamentals, on quality businesses, over 3-5 years, companies that can grow EPS 10% annually and cash flow. He won't overpay for the enthusiasm for potential AI growth. He's attracted to niche US software and IT now, and the hyperscalers.
There's still room to run in global stocks in this rotation period, shifting away from U.S. tech, because investors are adding up the costs and returns in tech--and it isn't adding up. So, the shift has been to the opposite: energy, just energy thrived in the sluggish 70s. Washington: How lame duck is Trump? We'll likely see a Democrat Congress, though who knows what will happen to the Senate? Probably, we'll see gridlock, which markets like. Markets would be more bearish if things shifted entirely to the left, because of tax policy. Trump lowered corporate taxes, but there won't be tax changes for at least 6 months.
Anthropic IPO: Few surprises in today's prospectus and so far, so good. US Midterms: Historically, gridlock is good for stock markets, but what's different now is the colossal amount of US debt. Expect a shutdown in the first few months, but he hopes it won't be too disruptive. AI: Democratic states don't want new data centres in their backyard (NIMBY), which will force companies to adjust their building plans. This week, the Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rate to keep pace with other central banks, given inflation. The world needs more housing supply and for wars to end.
Anthropic will IPO next month. Revenue growth per employee is far higher in the Mag 7 then the rest of the S&P 500, which has flatlined for the last 7 years. A chart of profit margins over that span is the same, with Mag 7 far outperforming the S&P 493. Anthropic touts AI is the most important tech to ever hit the planet given better productivity. Among the AI ETFs, AIQ is the passive way which outperforms when things are bad, but BAI outperforms when things are good. Both ETFs are the same now, and they both include SpaceX. Like SpaceX, he expects huge volatility from Anthropic, but buy the dips for a long-term hold.
It's a day-by-day thing: one day, tech rotates in, another day it rotates out. We haven't seen a full rotation though, because AI remains a dominant theme, but investors are asking when and what the returns will be, and when the capex spending will end. Who knows? Capex is massive, not since the railroads of the 1800s. He solds some Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft which he entered last spring. A lot of businesses are sitting on their hands, uncertain, like the car and steel sectors. We will feel this impact in the next few quarters.
Until very recently the market became very narrow, with only the largest of large-cap tech hanging in. As of this week, about 45% of companies in the S&P 500 are down more than 30%. With 60% down over 20%, 80% down over 10%.
The index has been looking pretty resilient, but there's a lot of weakness under the surface. Part of that has been from companies hurt by rising rates (defensive assets such as staples, utilities, etc). For companies that borrow fairly heavily, their borrowing costs have been going up.
In particular, the strength has been from companies generating lots of free cashflow and showing pretty steady dividend growth. Those have been his firm's focus.
US Interest Rates and Debt Pressures
There's a link in the Berman's Call blog, so viewers/readers can follow along with graphics.
The new US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, did an interview last week, where he talked about focusing policy on long-term inflation expectations. Bessent really has his eye on the ball. He was looking at the 10-year interest rates, but not at short-term rates. Trump has been audibly outspoken against the Federal Reserve for lowering rates, and that policy has been inflationary.
Last month, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey numbers really shot up from 3% to over 4%. If inflation expectations really start to elevate, people change their behaviour. For example, if they think prices are going to rise in the future, they buy more now, which further fuels inflation. You really have to be mindful of that, as the cost of the debt is the biggest line item on the balance sheet. They have to think how they can get the cost of the debt to the taxpayer as low as possible?
Elon Musk, the czar of the DOGE, "tweeted" out fiscal outlays on an inflation-adjusted basis, providing real and adjusted numbers. Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security are very big items. DOGE might be able to save $50B, but it doesn't really move the needle for a $29T economy. The tax cuts that Trump wants are going to cost too, so you need balance.
Net cost of all the US debt together has been rising as interest rate costs have gone up in recent years with central banks raising rates. That's the single biggest thing they have to control. The right framing is to focus President Trump's attention on keeping the long-term cost of debt as low as possible. We have to keep inflation expectations anchored.
Trump's America First policies are inflationary, make no mistake. We don't want policy moves to ignite inflation, or they'd get out of control and really problematic. Hopefully when Powell speaks this week to Congress, we're not going to see Trump complain on social media that this isn't being "fair" to him or whatever he might say.