Stockchase Opinions

Colin CieszynskiBMO S&P/TSX Oil & Gas ETFZEO.TOTOP PICKApr 07, 2026

Relative strength in energy started to move up before the war started as capital was moving into this sector.

$103.86

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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COMMENT
XEG vs. ZEO

He's in the camp that any advantage to the Canadian oil industry is transient, not long term. We need structural change in how the Canadian government looks at our ability as Canadians to distribute one of our best assets to the world. Until that happens, Canada will always trade at a discount to just about everywhere else in the world that sees O&G in a different light.

If your view is that the benefit is longer lasting, you'd move toward small caps. So equal-weight ZEO would potentially give you a better return than XEG. But that's not his outlook.

Since the war broke out, XEG is outperforming. The market sees recent moves as temporary, not permanent.

COMMENT
ENCC vs. ZEO

ENCC is the Global X oil and gas, covered call, income ETF. Compare to ZEO, which boasts 13% this year vs. ENCC's 12%; while over 3 years, it's 46% vs. 40%. The difference lies in the covered writing; you sell some of that future growth to create income now. That's neither good or bad. Also, gas and oil stocks are more volatile, though that makes call premiums higher but adds income.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 26/24, Down 7%)

Not devastating, but there are other things to do with capital. With the current macro economic situation, keep this allocation smaller. Follow through in the markets and some outperformance in energy would be encouraging. It's probably going to be a volume game, not a price game. 

TOP PICK

Excellent exposure to energy sector. Equal weight across the energy sector. Yield ~4.2% with a low management expense ratio. Energy cycle favorable to investors. 4% energy sector weighting on S&P 500 (traditionally higher) indicating room for further gains in sector as a whole. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 24/23, Up 5%)

Energy shares struggling first half of 2023.
Not a good pattern for investors. 
Has sold shares.

BUY

Good way to play oil exposure.
Quality product for oil bulls.
Good time to buy oil. 
Believes oil going to $100.

TOP PICK
Energy is entering strong seasonality from mid-February to early April. The chart shows we're poised to move up. There's undersupply of oil. Oil fundamentals are good.
BUY
oil There's underproduction of oil and supply constraints. Also, US oil reserves were drained before their elections and now needs to be filled whenever oil dips to $70. So, oil has a floor and there remains demand. A good sector to own, especially if China opens next spring. XEG holds Canadian oil stocks, and is market-cap weighted, including CNQ, Suncor and Cenovus among its top holding. ZEO is an equal-weight, so offers a little more diversity. And HXE is the cap-weighted ETF like XEG, but it doesn't pay a dividend. So this is good outside an RRSP. For midcap oil, look at NNRG, but charges a higher MER. It depends on your tax preference and the contents of each ETF.
WEAK BUY
Energy ETF Commodities are sensitive to the cycle: warning. Suggests XEG or HXE, both market-cap weighted in oil producers, but they are dominated by Suncor and CNQ (over 50% of these ETFs). For more diversification, look at equal-weighted ZEO-T. But he prefers HUC-T because it gives you commodity--and not commodity stock--exposure. For all of these, be very, very careful--there could be severe drawdowns in energy if the economy falters in the next 12 months.
SELL ON STRENGTH
The way to trade energy is XEG which is market cap weighted. ZEO is equal weights. He has been selling into strength right now though.
PARTIAL BUY
An equal weight to play the canadian energy sector. Long term he is not bullish but in the medium term, there is underinvestment in energy and this should keep oil elevated. Until OPEC opens the flood gates, it is a good way to play the energy space on an equal weights basis. Trade this name.
COMMENT

Challenge with buying US ETFs that participate in MLPs is that they're not favourable to a Canadian investor. Withholding tax of 15-30%. Be very, very careful on the MLPs. If you want gas exposure, think about XEG or ZEO. Most bang for the buck would be the HED, with small cap exposure. Small caps have more operating leverage if you're confident gas prices will rise. HOG is a bit more conservative.

BUY
He likes ZEO's equal weighted in energy. But also look at HOG-T which is midstream oil with a very different set of companies. Buy both, in fact. HOG also pays a 4.5% yield, slightly lower than ZEO's.
DON'T BUY
Equal weight. It has all the majors. Every time he buys it he loses money. When we have a national energy policy he would buy it. For now, no.