Opinions
Michael Underhill
Weyerhaeuser Co
WY-N
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Jul 02, 2014
$32.900
Stock price when the opinion was issued
misc industrial products
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DON'T BUY
A way to play interest rates. Huge, number one in lumber, owning 12 million acres of land across North America. Low interest rates and low unemployment drive their lumbers sales (more house sales). It comes down to the American consumer. There are better ways to play interest rates--bonds. WY is interesting, but he won't buy it.
misc industrial products
DON'T BUY
BUY
A major supplier of forest products. It's up 20% YTD including dividend. They reported a strong quarter last week. It's been stable despite volatile lumber prices. Lumber isn't their only business. It comes down to the housing market. If you think housing will thrive, then buy WY.
misc industrial products
BUY
RISKY
Lumber is a boom and bust industry and lumber prices and stocks are slumping. WY is cleaning up its balance sheet and growing its 2.9% dividend. They also have issued special dividends. They have a long-term plan, so you're good to ride out near-term choppiness holding this. But don't buy before they report on July 25, because numbers may not be good. Wait till after, though that can be risky too. A tailwind would be lower interest rates, because they would stimulate home-buying and home-building, which needs lumber.
misc industrial products
Has a calculated NAV of roughly $36, and would look to buy at $29. Looking at forward earnings, free cash flow and some of the things they have done structurally, they are focused on one thing, being the largest owner of timber and forest land in North America. 2.7% dividend yield.