Matt BaraschWalmart IncWMTBUY ON WEAKNESSFeb 19, 2004

Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.

WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.

They report Thursday. One of the greatest companies, it has been revamped into a place you want to shop at for all incomes. He expects great numbers.

Leave some $$ in your technology sleeve to allocate to one of the end users -- an industrial (TT) or big US bank (JPM or Citi) or retail/logistics (WMT or COST).

Successful transition to e-commerce is why stock's been on fire. Topline growth is only 4-5%, and his team debates this company all the time. PE is 46x earnings for 2026, extremely expensive. Seen as a safe place to park $$ as they continue to execute.

See his Top Picks.

The PE is a high 50x, but Costco is also high. It benefits from inflows into the XLP staples sector, of which 21% is Walmart and Costco. It reports Thursday. Don't reach for it here.

Consumer staples space in the US has really been all about COST. WMT has also done very well.

Wonderful business, adds a lot of value for customers. He struggles with the valuation, given its growth profile. To get a good longer-term return, you need earnings growth and multiple expansion.

WMT, as well as COST and DOL, are very defensive havens for investors. That's bid up the shares. PE ratios for the three are all north of 40x. With just a slight moderation in the PE, the overall return will still be flat. He'd be interested on a significant pullback. Be patient.

Everyone's probably shaking their head wondering why he's picking something trading at all-time highs ;)  His 12-month price target is $131. Still a decent return. He'd start a position here at $113, add more at $105, and get your final third around $100. 

Without a doubt, effectively runs the largest AI-enabled physical and digital commerce network in the whole world. What every retail aspires to be able to do. All that will just pour down to the bottom line. Yield is 0.83%.

Didn't bounce back as much as the market from that April low. But now starting to see some interest in the sector. One of the retailers that will probably best take advantage of AI. If it can get above $104 range, pretty positive.

It's a good business, don't try to get too cute with the buy price. Just pick up 2% today, and worry about your remaining 2-3% allocation later. Paying more actually confirms your idea. Never average down.

You have to look at these companies in terms of what can go wrong. If we go into a sustained, negative economic period, there's going to be a lot of hurt on a company like this. The outlook is very sunny, and his first question is what happens when it gets cloudy?

Trades at 40s forward PE, extremely overvalued (should be 20x). Avoid.

Executes really well. Don't get too many surprises, everyone understands it. Massive upside. Chart shows how it broke out of the little "step" recently. Will benefit immensely in the retail space from the adaption of AI (especially as it relates to knowing their customers' habits).

Trading at 40x forward PE. Need he say more? Extremely overvalued. Should trade closer to 20x PE. But there's a premium for safety. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

Iconic brand, as well as scale and efficiency. You could say it's quite expensive. On the other hand, what a moat. Could very well keep chugging along without having its multiple fall. Very profitable, lots of FCF to buy back shares. Nearest competitor is TGT, which is not doing well. Perhaps TGT's loss is WMT's gain.