Stockchase Opinions

Liz Miller Ventas Inc VTR-N TOP PICK Apr 24, 2017

It is a REIT, the opposite of a bank. But it is in the health care medical niche. It recently spun off the nursing home business. It is an attractive entry point. She prefers exposure more to office than retail in REITs. She is out of retail, generally. (Analysts’ target: $64.00).

$64.630

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Financial Services
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BUY

Seniors housing REIT in the US. He likes it. It has been clobbered. The decline is based on the broader US REIT index. People are getting older and you should see an increase in demand for seniors housing. You should see good rent increases. It is a little bit growth by acquisition based which is harder when you are trading at a discount.

WEAK BUY

A healthcare REIT. He owns a similar one. They are growth vehicles and trade significantly above NAV because they are constantly acquiring. The prices come off when there is a sign their acquisitions will drop off. They are looking at Canada. He thinks you are better buying companies they may want to acquire, however.

COMMENT

He likes the healthcare space, and this company owns medical office buildings, seniors’ homes, etc. This is generally a good business. However, being structured as a REIT, it has had a huge, huge run in share price and trades at a fairly steep valuation. It is vulnerable to interest rates coming down. He prefers Capital Senior Living (CSU-N) which trades at a much more modest valuation. Dividend yield of 4.2%.

DON'T BUY

One of the largest healthcare REITs. They are a very well managed company. He does not recommend it simply because it is real estate. When interest rates are rising it is bad for REITs.

DON'T BUY
It is a healthcare REIT, so there is little reason for it to do well until the FED pauses. They have a short history.
PARTIAL BUY
It plunged $63 to $13 when Covid first hit in 2020, but it has rebounded recently to $57. It reported a slightly better than expected quarter but slightly worse guidance last Friday. However, the report boasted improving occupancy trends in the seniors housing division. This could be a bargain and the dividend could rise.
BUY
A REIT that holds seniors' retirement homes, research centres, medical offices and hospitals. It got crushed last year, but has come back this year. Pays a 3.15% yield and he expects an increase.
COMMENT
In assisted living, he would buy Ventas, but too many things can go wrong with this entire sector due to Omicron, so he wouldn't touch the sector right now.
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Higher interest rates will weigh on this and other REITs. Their core business is seniors' homes, so long-term demographics are a tailwind. Their last quarter was in line, but shares were hammered. Pays a 4.3% dividend. Buy it gradually on the way down. You're paid to wait.