Opinions
David Fingold
Vale S.A.
VALE-N
DON'T BUY
Apr 10, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with VALE has triggered its stop at $15. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 13%, when combined with our previous buy recommendation.
A lot of metals have been settling down, and Brazil's had some rough times. Might have broken the support level, probably because copper and metals are taking a breather. Possible it will see lows of 2020. Chart's more bearish than bullish right now.
He wouldn't buy it. If you already own, it's your call, as the next target is that 2020 low.
Base metal investing, in general, is very cyclical. Very rarely a long-term growth story that you buy and hold because you always want to be there. That applies to base metals and precious metals. They can go through months or even years where they're doing great, and then they'll be out of favour for months or years. When the global economy's slowing, these things cheapen up quite a bit. And if we go into recession, they'll cheapen up even more.
He's been buying for his portfolio. Already at the low end of the range, though could get cheaper if we hit a recession.
He is not involved in this company because of its holdings in iron ore and nickel. The iron ore cycle from the 2000’s has played out the same way that it did in the cycle in the 70’s. A lot of capacity has been added. It’s a capital-intensive business. Once the capacity was added, that was the end of the cycle, and these cycles don’t come back for 20 years. He should be more positive about nickel but he feels that the Chinese have ruined the business. There are no labor or environmental laws to increase the cost of mining for nickel in China and this has put a lid on the price of nickel. When mining goes on hold, it does so for a very long time. On average, down cycles last about 20 years.