Stockchase Opinions

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTACI TECH GIANTS COVERED CALL ETFTXF.TOPARTIAL SELLNov 15, 2021

A hedged ETF will not have any impact on US assets since the currency is hedged. If inflation is more persistent, then the Fed will have to be more reactionary. This will cause an unexpected upward movement in interest rates, which will lead to these assets to underperform. Good strategy to extract yield from a sector with low yield. Not the best time to start a new position. Would trim some exposure.
$23.36

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 10/25, Up 19%)

(Note the shortish timeframe.)  Still provides ~10% income yield, so he's happy to hold and see how markets shake out. Some of the mega-cap names haven't performed well over the past 6 months, so this is at a good entry point. If those names lead the next leg higher, then you get not only your income but also some capital gains as well.

HOLD

Enhanced income via covered calls. Similar basket of stocks to HTA, though MER is slightly lower for TXF.

If you hold this, you're taking a significant bet on technology and the AI rollout. May behoove you to think about other areas of the market, such as energy. Try ENCC.

BUY

Holds large-cap tech, and has done very well in recent years. Is still recovering from April's lows. Given its covered call, this will pay a variable yield. You need to hold tech.

DON'T BUY

Depends on your risk tolerance. These are volatile stocks. If he's going to take on the risk of owning some very highly priced stocks, he wants the full value of the upside and not capped by covered calls. The premiums are very rich, but that's not what he wants for his clients.

In general, he likes tech ETFs because they've driven 30% of the gains in the market. And AI will be into everything -- even his dog's vet has adopted it.

TOP PICK

It holds the Mag 7 with a covered call. It uses more leverage than other covered call ETF, so there's a little more fluctuation. It pays around 10-11% in distributions, and he sees more upside.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Likes tech exposure, but expect lots of volatility. Expecting another low in the markets, but is a good long term investment. Good time to add a small position.
DON'T BUY
Very strong yield on product, but involves risk of investing in tech. Better places to earn consistent yield.
DON'T BUY
You should not invest just for a high dividend. The tech sector in the late cycle where interest rates rise, will underperform. He is underweight technology. You want to see this pullback significantly before dipping in. The dividend is volatile and is driven by the premium from the underlying stock price.
BUY
Nothing wrong with this. Tech is important to own, though will be volatile.
DON'T BUY
The company does some covered calls. One concern is that gold or any commodity is risky, so he wants the full benefit of that risk in return. A covered call on a commodity limits the upside (though he really likes covered calls in general). TXF pays a 9% dividend yield--it looks wonderful, but below the surface could lie risk.
COMMENT
Basket of 25 US tech stocks, equal weight, with a covered call. Yield is about 10%, but going forward it may be closer to 7%. Be aware that much of the yield is a ROC. It's not a straight dividend. He watches the ZWT ETF, market weighted, 65 holdings, more diversified, lower distribution, but it's outperformed TXF this year.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Big cap tech with extra yield from covered calls. Get pretty good premiums since volatility is high. TXF has a covered call. Over-valued right now so wait for a pullback. TXF.B has no currency hedge.
COMMENT
A 75-year-old holding this. Hold no more than 10% of your portfolio in anything this volatile at this age. It's a fine ETF though.
WEAK BUY
Certain amount of risk because they're tech giants. With covered calls, you're always giving up some of the growth. You might be better off buying something that's broader based. But if you're willing to accept the risk, then go ahead.