Kevin SimpsonTJX CompaniesTJXBUYMay 03, 2024

It hurt to trim this holding. They beat the top and bottom lines, but the stock should be moving higher, not lower. Their core businesses, including Marshall's, rose only 1% on the quarter, vs. 6% the previous. There can be seasonality, but TJX benefits from a K-shaped economy.

He is shocked that it's moved down like this, never. He bought some last week. It's down 17% the last 6 months. The next move is $130. It missed its last quarter. It needs to buy back shares and improve its TJ Max division.

At a 52-week low. One of their divisions reported poorly. TJ Max and Marshalls underperformed. Consumer discretionary remains weak.

He sold a covered call and made a little money, not much. Earnings were pretty good, but not the Q3 guide, though the full-year guide was decent. This was a sell the news incident. A fun trade.

They have 5,200 stores worldwide, so have a runway to keep growing. It's a counter-cyclical play on the consumer. TJX sells great products, the best way for consumers to go downscale.

Retail stocks were hit the market rotation today. A quality name, down 5.85% in the past month, and a buying opportunity. They benefit from the consumer trading down and buying excess inventory from struggling retailers for pennies on the dollar. Is a key holding of his.

He sold Honeywell to buy more TJX. Black Friday numbers were up. Customers aren't only the discount shopper, but very income. Are untouched by tariffs.

It reports Wednesday. Business is good and he expects fabulous numbers. Note: shares fall even when they report good numbers. Buy.

Up 15.7% this year, helped by buying goods where the tariff has already been paid by someone else. Key metric is same-store sales: +4% in 2025. Trades at 28x 2026 PE. PEG ratio is 2.7, pricey, but investors will pay up for quality. Has longed like TJX. Heavy share buybacks this year with more to come this year. Best among the discount apparel retailers. 

Pretty cautious on consumer names, since we're about mid-late cycle economically. Interest rates coming down might help the consumer. In the consumer space, he'd prefer a name like this. Downshift in spending going on now.

They don't pay tariffs on their goods. Rather, the initial importers in the US pay.

Have totally sidestepped the tariffs, seeing momentum and fundamentals are great.

Off-price retail is in the sweet spot now, and TJX is the best at it. They reported beats and raised full-year outlook. They can avoid tariffs. Are seeing margin expansion.

Loves it. Will do well in a recession. Consumers are loyal.

Will survive this tariff war, TJX will thrive with excess inventory from suppliers.