Stockchase Opinions

Bruce Campbell (2) Terra Firma Capital TII-X COMMENT Oct 26, 2016

They had a project where they had lent out some money to the big Urban Corp. real estate company, which defaulted on their loans. Fortunately, the loan was secured by some real estate. Terra Firma just announced getting full repayment of the principal plus interest for that property. Now it will be a function to go out and deploy that capital. He understands things are growing quite well for them. They are very active in the US which is their big focus.

$0.560

Stock price when the opinion was issued

REAL ESTATE
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COMMENT

(Real estate lending) Getting equity like returns with a debt like structure. Have positive earnings per share now and just recently did a financing to build up their loan book. Down the road it is going to be a great little company. The people behind it are very well-heeled and probably are looking at this to be a $500 million company. Thinks this will go significantly higher based on their earnings.

TOP PICK

Specialized financing for real estate. Management used to operate the IPC Reit before they sold it in 2007. They try to get equity like returns on a debt like structure. Thinks they can earn as high as $0.10 a share next year. Putting a conservative 10X multiple on that, the stock is at around $1.20. Just hired someone from Tricon (TCN-T) who looked after their US operations for a number of years. His focus will be going into the US and try to build out the business down there.

COMMENT

A good lender in the real estate space. The sag in the stock price is more of an attitude of people towards real estate. It looks well-run and they manage their risks well. Longer-term trend seems pretty good.

BUY

Glenn Watchorn came over from Tricon Capital and had done a lot to build Tricon’s US business. Thinks they are going to do the exact same thing here. A small-cap company that is really underfollowed, and not many institutions can own it because of its size. This is a business you just tuck away, and in 10 years it is probably a 10 bagger from here. You have to live with some volatility because it is going to go up and down. They are always going to be issuing stock as they grow their business, so don’t be spooked or be surprised when they do that. A long-term growth vehicle and the people behind it are really smart.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Nov 19/14, Up 8.11%) They need to manage getting paid back on their loans. The team has a history of managing on a lot of environments. Their loan book is larger than it has ever been before. Their fourth quarter should be fairly strong.

TOP PICK

Very well owned. Great management. They are growing at an exceptionally great rate. He thinks they will beat their numbers when they finally report.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 16/16. Down 25.64%.) He doesn’t lose sleep on this company. They lent money to Urbancorp which is filing for bankruptcy. Also, got a big payment at the end of last year, so their loan book went down more than had been anticipated. They are back on track now, and he is still buying.

DON'T BUY

This tends to be financers to people developing and building properties, a very risky part of the housing market. Has always been concerned about its exposure to the Canadian housing market. Recently got into trouble through some Israeli bonds.