Michael Hakes - CFA, MBA Target Corp TGT-N PAST TOP PICK Apr 19, 2024

Added about 1.5 years ago based on quality name that had been priced at a discount (post Covid-19 sell off). Since then, has sold shares. Believes share price is fully valued. Would invest more if share price fell. 

Seasonally, retail tends to do well from late-October to November, and the sector did do well. But TGT didn't, not a good sign. Underperforming. Retail is also strong from late-January to mid-April.

He expects an activist to step in, but they do food and places with scale, like Walmart and Amazon, do it better.

Trades at 10x PE and pays a 4.75% dividend yield. Has fallen and is now cheap historically.

Has been a problem child for a while and not worth the headache; there are better retailers. TGT faces a weaker consumer.

It caters to higher-income consumers than Walmart. She's long-term and patient. 

They report Wednesday. It has been a victim of poor luck and protests. Pays a 4.5% yield. He fears that TGT reports an okay quarter but withholds guidance.

Will hold it, is down 40% the past year. Not happy. The stock is hard to defend. Traffic is down. But she still sees value in the brand. They need to reduce their product from 62% discretionary to 50%. She likes their restructuring.

Well managed, high-quality franchise. Struggled a bit relative to competitors like WMT. Valuation multiple is lower than other retailers, but not downright cheap. Headwinds to US consumer from tariffs on goods, which will impact demand. Be cautious near-term.