South Bow CorporationSOBO.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSMay 28, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 11, 2026. Market Open.
Essentially the old Keystone XL. Pretty high debt, not a lot of growth, but a big yield. Now there's talk about reviving Keystone XL, which raises the possibility of significant growth. Smallest, and cheapest, of the big 4 pipelines. Worth looking at.
Any of the 4 big Canadian pipelines is worth holding for the long term.
Three years ago these kinds of companies were the best deal in town, but are now a tricky. Huge revaluations were justified. These were never going to be stranded assets, though those who expects us not to need oil in the future thought otherwise. Given the Iran war, there's more demand to get oil safely to market. We'll see if their Prairie Connector project comes to pass. He's content to keep shares that came out of the TC Energy deal, never adding or selling.
Likes Keystone Part 2. A play on moving oil from Canada to the US. Risky, and it might not happen -- needs partners. Current government and nation-building are positives for pushing ahead. If it does happen, expect $5 of upside. A nervous market, and we don't know what oil is going to do.
Last quarter was in line. Balance sheet improving. Trades at 15x PE for 2027 for 25% growth. Good risk/reward. Beautiful yield of 6.41% while you wait.
Prairie Connector project is a key catalyst, worth about $5 a share, and not yet in the stock price. Q1 was in line, Keystone was a bit lower (offset by marketing strength). Meritorious story right now for Canada's future.
At 18x PE for 2028, no longer cheap. Growth of 16%. Wait for a pullback. But if you're in it for the long term, could add a bit here. Great dividend.