The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)
Pulte Homes Inc
PHM-N
TOP PICK
Nov 18, 2021
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly This well diversified US home builder will continue to benefit from 30 year mortgage rates near historic lows -- especially as pandemic driven demand continues. We reiterate it as a TOP PICK. It is trading at 8x earnings, compared to peers at 18x and valued at under 2x book, this is good value. We like that it has been reducing debt and buying back shares. It pays a small (but growing -- up 38% over the past 3 years) dividend that is backed by an payout ratio under 10% of cash flow. We recommend trailing up the stop from ($43.50) to $46.00, looking to achieve $65.50 -- upside over 25%. Yield 1.09% (Analysts’ price target is $65.50)
The US homebuilder saw a 24% increase in new orders over the year and 2nd quarter revenues were up 8% to over $4 billion. It trades at 7x earnings, 1.7x book and supports a 31% ROE. We like that cash reserves are growing, while debt is aggressively retired and shares bought back. We recommend a stop-loss at $65, looking to achieve $97 -- upside potential of 23%. Yield 0.8%
We reiterate PHM as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings indicated a 43% increase in orders, which helped beat earnings expectations. It trades at 8x earnings, under 2x book and supports a 30% ROE. We like that cash reserves are growing, while debt is retired and shares bought back. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $65) to $69, looking to achieve $96 -- upside potential of 17%. Yield 0.7%
(A Top Pick Nov 09/23, Up 18.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with PHM has achieved its target at $96. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $69) to $75.
(A Top Pick Nov 23/23, Up 34.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with PHM has triggered its stop at $109. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 36% when combined with the previous buy recommendations.
Has sharply risen since July with strong volumes. Has reached overbought territory now, at 52-week highs. The Chaikin Moneyflow which reflects institutional buying has been great. Has been making higher highs and higher lows. Lang says this could hit $200 next year.
Good opportunity here. Mid-range homebuilder. In 26 states. Good valuation around 10x PE. Some of the heat will come off the mortgage market, which will benefit homebuilders. Yield is 1%.
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