Stockchase Opinions

Craig BlumProgressive CorporationPGRTOP PICKOct 01, 2004

A low cost leader in the US auto insurance market. Uses the internet to market.
$84.48

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$204.02

As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.

insurance
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BUY

A number of P&C insurers in the US pulled back post-hurricane. Technically, not broken. Sector probably does pretty well going forward. 

HOLD

Higher rates are actually good for insurance companies.

BUY

Is doing well. They use AI the most among the insurers.

BUY

Shares have been rocketing, partly because they're using generative AI and their own data more than any insurer to assess risk and therefore making fewer mistakes.

PARTIAL SELL
Very fine company. One of the best property and casualty companies in the world. Relatively resilient, defensive business model. Long-term, he recommends it. But for short and medium performance, we're exiting a recession, so it makes sense to put more capital into cyclicals.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 02/19, Up 22%) A defensive, not a cyclical, stock. Okay to own now, but as we exit this recession (this shortest ever), it's better to own cyclicals. They're an auto insurer and diversifying into commercial. They have a low cost base, a tailwind, and are diversified nationally in the U.S. But doesn't see this outperform the market in the next 12 months.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 27/19, Up 1%) When interest rates rose in Q4, the stock fell down. The stock moves according to rates and not the fundamentals of the insurance industry, which frustrated him. So he exited. PGR has been doing well, because rates plunge and fewer people are driving, hence getting into car accidents, which suggest a good combined ratio. PGR is best in class in insurance.
DON'T BUY
He owned it for many years until interest rates started to rise. The whole group has done poorly over the last 60 days. More natural catastrophes mean insurance companies have a 'hard market' and can increase fees over that of claims.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 04/19, Up 22%) Insurance has been pretty reliable, especially in the US. It will kind of hang around here and you could pick it up in the high $70's. Earnings will continue to accelerate. He is buying this.
TOP PICK
An internet company that happens to sell insurance, goes the joke. They have the lowest costs of execution among P&C insurers, and have a better underwriting record than its peers. They benefit from lower interest rates; competitors charge more fpr insurance to make up for this. (Analysts’ price target is $81.82)
TOP PICK
Property and casualty insurance is the best part of financial services. They have very low costs of operation. Profitability and growth are dramatically higher than peers. (Analysts’ price target is $81.47)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 04/19, Up 13%) Big American insurer. Strong uptrend since the start of the year, but bounced off $80 and is holding at the current $75. Really likes it and has been enjoying a long-term uptrend. Insurance does well in the summer, and he prefers them to the banks in Canada.
BUY
He likes the company. It is one of the better components of the financial industry in the US right now. Casualty insurance has been rated a market-perform recently. He thinks there is a hard pricing in personal lines. It is a conservative business. They can raise prices every 12 months. There are three big players. These guys have the lowest cost. They are well positioned.
TOP PICK
You have to move out of Canada. They are a proponent of telemetric driving where you stick a gismo in your car and it tells you if you are a good driver. They are making a big push on the commercial side. They have a fantastic balance sheet. (Analysts’ price target is $74.06)
TOP PICK
Good fundamentals with support at $59. It can move into into the $70s again. (Analysts’ price target is $74.06)