Pengrowth EnergyPGF.TOCOMMENTDec 31, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jan 09, 2020. Market Open.
The stock has bounced because of the higher oil price. It has sold assets to bring down debt, but debt is $600 million compared to an equity base of $1 billion, so it is still a bit high. At this point, they don’t have any key assets for sale. Their low production is 19,000 boe/day, which is this quarter. They will bring on more wells to bring production to 23,000 boe/day by the end of the year. Cash flow will be about $0.20 per year. His target for this year is $2 and $4.50 for the next 3-to-5 years. The company has a new CEO, with relevant (thermal oil) experience.
This had the benefit of some spectacular hedges. In 2016 they have roughly 59% of their oil production hedged at $88.57, which doesn’t come off for a couple of years. If you remove the benefit of the hedges, the valuation of the actual company is not that low. Trading at a premium multiple if you take off the hedges, and at the same time once you remove the hedge book, even at a $55-$60 oil price his debt estimate is materially higher than most people believe, ballooning to 6X in 2017. If looking for a way to play an increase in oil, there are other names he is more comfortable with.