Pengrowth EnergyPGF.TODON'T BUYOct 22, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jan 09, 2020. Market Open.
The stock has bounced because of the higher oil price. It has sold assets to bring down debt, but debt is $600 million compared to an equity base of $1 billion, so it is still a bit high. At this point, they don’t have any key assets for sale. Their low production is 19,000 boe/day, which is this quarter. They will bring on more wells to bring production to 23,000 boe/day by the end of the year. Cash flow will be about $0.20 per year. His target for this year is $2 and $4.50 for the next 3-to-5 years. The company has a new CEO, with relevant (thermal oil) experience.
In the short to medium term, they are in a position to survive this low price in oil. Have one of the best hedged positions of any oil company. When the hedges roll off at anywhere close to today’s oil price, they would be in a much more challenged position from a debt perspective. Even if oil rallies to $55-$60 there are some names where the debt to cash flow are no longer punitive. This is not one of those companies. They will be relying on asset sales, which they have been successful at so far this year. It is believed they have more assets that they are trying to sell today. If successful, that could deliver the company and get a multiple bump. He wouldn’t own this name right now.