Pengrowth EnergyPGF.TOTOP PICKNov 06, 2012Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jan 09, 2020. Market Open.
The stock has bounced because of the higher oil price. It has sold assets to bring down debt, but debt is $600 million compared to an equity base of $1 billion, so it is still a bit high. At this point, they don’t have any key assets for sale. Their low production is 19,000 boe/day, which is this quarter. They will bring on more wells to bring production to 23,000 boe/day by the end of the year. Cash flow will be about $0.20 per year. His target for this year is $2 and $4.50 for the next 3-to-5 years. The company has a new CEO, with relevant (thermal oil) experience.
Unlike Penn West (PWT-T), there is more clarity of sustainability for the yield. With their asset sales, their effective payout ratio next year should be about 138%. That is below the peer group average of 150%. Trading at a really low valuation of around 6X 2013 EV to discounted adjusted cash flow. Peers are at around 9X or 9.25X. You get paid to wait for this prolific potential of future growth. Yield of 8.4%.