Stockchase Opinions

Jim Cramer - Mad Money Paychex PAYX-Q BUY Apr 07, 2021

On Monday, it hit an all-time high during a fabulous jobs report, but then yesterday the market didn't like its quarterly report, which beat in earnings, inline sales and slightly raised full-year forecast. He liked this report, but Wall Street didn't. PAYX shares plunged 5%. He saw this coming, because PAYX tends to report good numbers then sells off, which creates a buying opportunity before grinding higher.
$94.810

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Fantastic payroll business. Main segment is small/medium size business owners. Very good business performance. Sector consolidation has provided opportunity for company. Would recommend holding - share price high. If share prices fall - good time to buy. 

WAIT

It reports next week. If the Fed stops cutting rates, the street expects this stock to fall. Wait to hear what the Fed says next week. This yields 2.7%. He'd buy this at 3%.

BUY

Recent earnings were up 4%. Veritable cash cow because they bank all the payroll taxes (that customers submit to the IRS) at current interest rates. It's like free money on top of earnings. Revenue growth was double GDP. Entirely domestic, so protected from trade barriers. 

Services small companies, so if the economy does well from tax cuts, this name should continue to grow. Long-term, compounding annual returns of 14-15% -- you double your money roughly every 4-5 years. A buy and hold, not a trade.

BUY

Paychex will buy Paycor, a rival, for $4.1 billion. Pacyor will give PAYX more scale to broaden their offerings. Likes this deal.

SELL

Has done well over time, but he far prefers ADP.

BUY

It reports Wednesday. It got smoked in their last report, though Paychex will continue to do well, defying the bears.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Is a domestic US company, so it faces no tariff risk. Is Trump cuts taxes 15%, this adds 20% to growing earnings for PAYX. Margins have been growing, and they just bought a company that will accrete to earnings (they report tomorrow). Trades at a high 28x PE, but the dividend grows 10% annually. Has owned this 30 years.

BUY

Reported a great quarter on Q3 with a modest top and bottom line beat and positive conference call. Shares popped 4% today.

BUY

They announced Monday that they finished taking over rival Paycor in a sector that needs consolidation. Now, PAYX is in a much better position to take market share. They reported a good quarter last March, but that was before tariffs hit.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They reported a mixed quarter: in-line earnings and slightly lower revenue, but the full-year revenue forecast was light, though earnings forecast was fantastic. Made new sense that shares slid 9% today. He likes their merger with Paycore which may have made their quarter harder to understand.