Stockchase Opinions

Andrew Moffs NorthWest Health Prop Real Est Inv Trust NWH.UN-T WEAK BUY Mar 30, 2021

A diversified healthcare REIT, with assets in Australia, New Zealand, UK, Brazil and Canada. They just issued units to the public, which signals their stock is fairly valued. It trades at a discount to NAV. NWH is very safe, operating in the right segments of healthcare. They have a growing asset management business, providing steady a fee income stream. There's less upside here vs. other healthcare names, and you're owning for the yield.
$12.975

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK

It has a 6.2% yield and he doesn't usually put higher yielding stocks into the equity platforms. This one came from the income platform. It fell so fast because it was over-leveraged but has now sold some of its assets. It is building a base and appears to be breaking out so he has bought two of the three legs.                      Buy 0  Hold 5  Sell 0

(Analysts’ price target is $5.85)
RISKY

Balance sheet's really under pressure, making progress with repairing. Management shakeup, but now the new CEO's leaving in 2025. Lots of heavy work to do. Only for those with high risk tolerance. More compelling opportunities elsewhere.

BUY

One of the most attractive REITs on the TSX right now. Coming out of poor fundamental operations where capital allocation was mismanaged. New CEO cut dividend, sold properties. Prepared either way if interest rates fall or rise. Payout ratio will fall closer to 80%. Stock may have fallen recently because that new CEO is retiring next year. Yield is 7.3%, one of the highest out there.

HOLD
Does dividend cut mean it's now in a good financial spot?

Yes, in much better position today than previously. Management transition. Hard to see it going back to $10 levels anytime soon. Decent job allocating capital (ie. selling assets) to pay down debt. Enough to pay March debentures. Risk/reward not that compelling.

DON'T BUY

Likes the space. Diversified assets globally. Capital allocation decisions caught up to them, and stock dropped in 2022. Liquidity crunch, management shakeup, new CEO set to retire. Attractive yield is in question. If you want safety, this isn't it.

WATCH

Not very focused geographically, so all those moving parts are hard to maintain. Likes some changes they've made with management and the balance sheet, so he's watching it now. One of largest tenants in Australia has gone bankrupt, which could affect 5-10% of earnings. It's a wait and see.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 27/24, Down 1%)

It is caught up in the interest rate environment. Pays a 7 1/2% dividend and is in the defensive healthcare space. Has long term leases with rent escalators built in. Debt is down and cash flow up. The payment ratio is very sustainable. This will be the first earnings call for the new CEO.

TOP PICK

Lower beta, boring for this time of year. Two overlooked sectors in one -- healthcare and REITs. Steady eddy. Should probably hold its own between now and the fall, when he'll probably exit. Collect the dividend, might go up a couple of bucks, better than cash. Decent yield of 7.34%.

(Analysts’ price target is $5.57)
WATCH

Show-me story. New management tasked with a much-needed overhaul. Quality assets, but in disparate geographies globally. May exit some of them to focus on Canada and US. Earnings growth may be delayed.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 27/25, Up 3%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  A lower-beta, higher-dividend choice for the summer when risks were higher than usual.

Note that he'll probably be out of this soon, see if it swings up over the next few weeks and then exit.