Opinions
The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)
Nike Inc
NKE-N
TOP PICK
Mar 02, 2021
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Trades around 20x PE. Options: implied volatility is over 30, so you're paid twice as much as the broader market. Because the stock has been under pressure for a long time, these options are more expensive than others. Currently, at May $70 puts you can get $3.90, an attractive 5% return if shares stay flat over 3 months.
Added recently around current level of $77. Online push didn't work; it can be part of the business, but not the main part. New CEO has gone back to basics. Huge FCF, minimal debt. Incredibly well positioned. Chance to buy on sale the world's best business in the sector.
Good news is it's the largest in athletic wear and shoes. No debt, tons of firepower. Industry leader. Slow fixes from horrendous mistakes. Looking for earnings improvement in 2026. Worst is over. To bring manufacturing back to the US would be way too expensive for this type of company.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly NKE has clearly benefited from the pandemic, trading up to 78x earnings. However with EPS expected to be up over 25% next year and to average over 34% annually over the next five, its forward PE looks like a more reasonable 35x earnings. It pays a smallish dividend, backed by a sustainable 55% payout ratio. HSBC just upgraded the company to a buy last week, citing the company is now realizing its strategy of achieving both higher margins and growing market share. We would buy this with a stop-loss at $110, looking to achieve $164 -- upside potential of 20%. Yield 0.74% (Analysts’ price target is $163.68)