Vail Resorts IncMTNDON'T BUYMay 01, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of May 29, 2026. Market Open.
It was a winner until 2021 when it peaked, but has slid since. It still hasn't bounced back. Had a disappointing 2023-4 season, which the company blamed on lack of snow. However, season pass sales are floundering, because they have been pumping up skiing prices. Also, they suffered a 2-week strike in Utah which hurt shares. Last spring, shares fell to Covid levels. Last week, MTN changed CEOs. Q3-2025: -7% YOY skiier visits, +3% resort revenue YTD and +8% raised prices YOY. People spent more money on ancillary services. They posted in-line revenue and an earnings beat. Guidance mentioned tariff unknowns. Shares then sold off. The turnaround could take a while, though MTN is cheap at under 20x PE now. But MTN needs to do something, like cut prices.
Expecting further growth of travel.
Poor winter conditions impacting share price.
Very strong assets with best ski hills in the business.
Strong free cash flow with steady dividend.
Good value proposition with season's pass.
Stock price currently undervalued - good time to buy.
The reason he sold is weather. Clear that something has changed, 3 years in a row of it not snowing. Balance sheet not good, but raised dividend. Stock's been crushed. Expects it to be taken out by private equity. Great assets.
If he can't see double-digit, predictable earnings growth of 10% or more, he's not interested.