Stockchase Opinions

Barry SchwartzVail Resorts IncMTNDON'T BUYMay 01, 2026

The reason he sold is weather. Clear that something has changed, 3 years in a row of it not snowing. Balance sheet not good, but raised dividend. Stock's been crushed. Expects it to be taken out by private equity. Great assets.

If he can't see double-digit, predictable earnings growth of 10% or more, he's not interested.

$125.97

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$133.60

As of May 29, 2026. Market Open.

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PARTIAL BUY

It was a winner until 2021 when it peaked, but has slid since. It still hasn't bounced back. Had a disappointing 2023-4 season, which the company blamed on lack of snow. However, season pass sales are floundering, because they have been pumping up skiing prices. Also, they suffered a 2-week strike in Utah which hurt shares. Last spring, shares fell to Covid levels. Last week, MTN changed CEOs. Q3-2025: -7% YOY skiier visits, +3% resort revenue YTD and +8% raised prices YOY. People spent more money on ancillary services. They posted in-line revenue and an earnings beat. Guidance mentioned tariff unknowns. Shares then sold off. The turnaround could take a while, though MTN is cheap at under 20x PE now. But MTN needs to do something, like cut prices.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 18/22, Up 7%)

Expecting further growth of travel.
Poor winter conditions impacting share price.
Very strong assets with best ski hills in the business.
Strong free cash flow with steady dividend.
Good value proposition with season's pass.
Stock price currently undervalued - good time to buy. 

BUY

Trades at 33x earning and pays a 3.3% yield, and is riding the travel/leisure wave of people wanting to enjoy life after being locked up during Covid.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
It has rallied $14 from its low, defying the market sell-off. They just reported a strong quarter, a good fiscal 2022 full-year, and a very bullish forecast. He has liked Vail this even before Covid, and during Covid. They announced a stretegic shift in January 2022 by slashing passes by 20% to sell more season passes to customers who aren't rich. They also reported a beat in June, but the market didn't care. Pass sales are up 7% YOY as of September 2022. Trades at 24x earnings, about half of last November's level. He wouldn't be surprised if shares decline more with the market, but this is a buy during such weakness.
TOP PICK
Same price as during Covid, which makes no sense. Should report strong results. Upcoming pass sales seem strong. All systems go. Acquires any mountains for sale. Strong management. Lots of free cash. High-end clientele insulated from inflation. Yield is 3.47%. (Analysts’ price target is $294.30)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 04/19, Up 27%) As a tourism stock, he can't believe it's up so much. Has fly-in, but also drive-in, resorts. Unique geographical assets that no one can duplicate. They're not building any more mountains.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 04/19, Down 5%) Will be opening all resorts in the Fall. Has both day use and overnight properties. Unique properties. Pleasantly surprised by its recovery since March. Can increase revenues by increasing prices and expanding services to its current user base.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 30/19, Down 21%) They had to close early because of the pandemic. Will there be a ski season for 2021? Vail says yes, and it's open for hiking now. But people may not want to stay at hotels and eat at restaurants there. No surprise that leisure stocks like this are taking a hit and will benefit greatly from a vaccine.
BUY
He kept this one. He felt it fell too much. They will come out of this better and bigger. It is a pretty good sport for social distancing. Long term there is nothing better than this business.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 07/19, Up 13%) They made skiing a growing and flourishing business. With the epic pass, it is a growth business. It is a great opportunity to own one of the premier companies in the world with a moat around it.
TOP PICK
They just became the largest ski resort operator in the US with their latest acquisition -- including in Whistler. Their "Epic" pass allows holders to ski at all their resorts. Yield 3.05% (Analysts’ price target is $259.45)
TOP PICK
It dominates North America ski resorts after just buying 17 of them, like Whistler. It's terrifically run. A lot of these resorts now opereates in all four seasons. It plays into the theme of young people spending on recreation. (Analysts’ price target is $249.45)
BUY
Wonderful. Ski resorts strech from coast to coast and now Europe. Smart operators. He suspects they are creating a world empire. They will package hotel, restaurants and skiing.
BUY
It's down 35-40% from summer's peak. People didn't like their new pricing plans (season passes). The stock is down more because of fear than results. He's looking for good results this quarter. He likes the stock because MTN has consolidated this industry; it can offer a North American seasonal pass.