Mike Vinokur
Marvell Technology Group
MRVL-Q
RISKY
Mar 07, 2025
He owned, but sold a bit early. He had a nice profit, got off the train, but the train kept going. Got rid of all chip exposure on worry that valuations were really getting out of whack on lofty sentiment. First-rate management and product. Growth is slowing, future earnings are muted, yet still over 20x PE.
If you believe in the story, you could buy a bit, tuck it away, and the potential return could be great 3-5 years from now. Problem is that technology changes so quickly, so today's winner can become tomorrow's loser. Think of INTC.
Penetration into AI and data centres is not particularly strong. He'd prefer AVGO, or even AMD. A long shot might even be MU, at a much cheaper valuation.
As with other semiconductors, has really tumbled in last few months. Possibility of a bounce here. Old resistance was $75, and would look pretty good if it can break through that. So watch for that $75; if it breaks through and particularly with volumes picking up, that would be encouraging.
Is in the middle of an historic decline, despite its earnings having an historic advance. It's been punished enough. Buy a quarter position here and another at $50. The CEO bought a ton of stock.
A year ago, everyone was trying to find the next best thing to NVDA. System-on-a-chip puts chips out closer to the data, a nice niche. 12-month price target of $112.50, great runway.
Semiconductors, broadly, have become like shooting fish in a barrel since ChapGPT made its debut in late 2022. All are pretty cyclical. Likes others better, such as NVDA and AVGO.
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He owned, but sold a bit early. He had a nice profit, got off the train, but the train kept going. Got rid of all chip exposure on worry that valuations were really getting out of whack on lofty sentiment. First-rate management and product. Growth is slowing, future earnings are muted, yet still over 20x PE.
If you believe in the story, you could buy a bit, tuck it away, and the potential return could be great 3-5 years from now. Problem is that technology changes so quickly, so today's winner can become tomorrow's loser. Think of INTC.