Stockchase Opinions

Alice Tsang Mart Resources Inc MMT-T HOLD Sep 13, 2013

Operates in Nigeria, so there is obviously country risk. It is always cheap. Although she hasn’t looked at valuations for a while, it depends on the declines of the wells but these wells come on significantly strong.

$1.430

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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HOLD

Stock has really come off in the last few days. Trades at a low multiple because it is working out of Nigeria. Thinks the dividend is safe here. Pipeline has been down for quite some time but they have $100 million credit facility and he thinks a new pipeline is going to come on at the end of this summer. Still likes the story. 13.5% dividend yield.

COMMENT

Oil producer in Nigeria. A company where there is lots of risk and lots of opportunity. Started paying a dividend about 1.5 years ago. Dividend yield is very high. The big problem is the pipeline. They have operator losses which basically means people are stealing from the pipeline. Just announced an update on a new pipeline. The key to this company’s future growth and stability is a secondary pipeline. Their assets are quite strong, management is okay, balance sheet is alright and their producing potential is very good. Once the pipeline is fully commissioned, the stock will get a lot more interest.

BUY

Was a top pick in Dec/11. Nigerian oil and gas play. Difficult play. Trades with a 13% yield. Production can expand because there is more capacity in the pipeline. Be aware of the geographical risk. More upside than downside, 13% yield. They have to keep up their production. Thinks dividend will be safe here.

COMMENT

Oil producer in Nigeria. Has a pipeline which has some associated losses with the pipeline by the operator. They are working on an alternative pipeline. Good assets and good production. Cash flow should pick up quite nicely over the next couple of years if they can solve the pipeline issue. Not a bad little company in terms of an African oil producer. They’re a pretty big risk as the 13% yield would indicate. Very speculative.

DON'T BUY

Historically they have had a big loss ratio out of their pipeline in Nigeria (theft). Were supposed to work with Shell to get a new pipeline that would go out to the Ocean. They are not currently covering their dividend. If they get the pipeline issue fixed it has a lot of upside.

COMMENT

Recently production numbers have not been coming through and the pipeline in Nigeria has been down. There is a lot of theft in the pipeline. Nigeria is not the easiest place to work in. He is doubtful that the 17.5% dividend can remain where it is right now. They are going to need their cash to try to increase production and build out their pipeline.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Dec 27/12, Down 13.98%) 16.25% dividend. He was afraid it would get cut. Huge play on Nigerian oil. They had some problems in terms of the pipeline. It is still up in the air if the theft from the pipeline may cause a drop in the dividend.

DON'T BUY

Nigeria is a very difficult place to work in. There is a lot of theft in the pipeline, but this does have a very good yield. They may be looking to make some acquisitions and hopefully to continue to extend the pipeline to get more cash flow through. 13.3% yield.

COMMENT

Nigerian oil and gas play. This is a tough one. It is not for the faint of heart. Looking at acquisitions that may grow their production quite a bit. Does not know if he would enter the stock right now.