Stock price when the opinion was issued
Management has proven ability to operate in difficult environments. DRC min is 4th largest copper mine in the world, so recent seismic event is unfortunate. Significant potential, but he wishes it were in another jurisdiction.
There's no such thing as an easy path when talking about emerging areas. He avoids those risks.
Stock fell precipitously because of underground stability issues in Congo mine; operation is temporarily suspended as they fix it. Suspects this issue might last 6-8 months; part of the answer involves less aggressive underground mining. Longer term, that complex is nowhere near maturity in terms of copper production. Bringing on world's largest platinum and palladium mine, plus world's highest-grade zinc mine.
The only reason not to own is if you're afraid of the not-insignificant political risk in both South Africa and Congo. Sometimes if the technical aspects of a project are truly superior, you need to stomach the political risk. He's a very big investor, so there's a lot of bias in his answer ;)
Unfortunate flooding and suspension of one of its premier mines in DRC. Still trying to assess infrastructure damage. Guesses it won't be back until late 2026. Inflection in FCF could be pushed beyond then. Investment and vote of confidence from Qatar Investment Authority.
In limbo. Highlights scarcity of world-class mines, seeing M&A, could be a takeout.
The pricing and politics are out of your control, and so is seismic activity--will it go away? Having a small position in base metals make sense, but IVN is too uncertain. IVN is a lottery.