Frank CappielloIntelINTCTOP PICKMay 14, 2004

Massive runup earlier in the year as the US government took a stake. Not executing well based on most recent earnings report. Gapped down tremendously. He has put orders written to buy in the $50s and $40s. Hasn't stepped in yet.

A turnaround story, The upside could be meaningful if its manufacturing strategy does work, but execution risk is much higher, and are still spending heavily to rebuild its competitive position. Is a show-me story.

He liked this. He believed the hype, the data centre growth, but forgot their PC business and debt. It's a broken company. They just guided for a weak 2027. Hopeless. Shares plunged 28.58% today. INTC failed to warn about their PC weakness.

Buy through earnings which are at the end of this month. It's lately fallen hard from peaks. They can't do a share buyback. A terrible trading stock lately after a good run. Likes the company.

It's fully priced now. Buy it at $90.

They have a new foundry coming online with good specs, though not as good as Taiwan Semi. The CEO will turn things around, though he's hampered by the debt accumulated by his predecessor. The current turnaround is happening due to the strong CPU demand. Shares dropped 7% today after a parabolic move, which could be an opportunity.

He was wrong about the price of it when he started to buy it. He didn't include the idea that the government's position can be sold shortly would really impact the stock. Their quarter was fabulous. Then, there was a general sell-off in tech. But he realized there's a big government position and people just hate this kind of company. Investors are taking profits. It's humbling.

The stock offering went well, given strong demand. A year ago, they pivoted from making chips for themselves to for others. The next catalyst is to announce some of these contracts.

Roared back to life. That move was underpinned by a number of things it did to right the ship, but not a sustainable way to grow earnings. An also-ran. Domestic footprint is an advantage, part of Washington's reshoring game. 

Sales this year likely to be same as 2022, while other players are growing mightily. No edge or innovation. Trades at 57x PE, while others trade at less than half that.

He's cautious on semis. The market is pricing in a decline in AI spend and lower ROIs. Intel is down a lot from its peak, which had a massive rally. Expect a bounce at some point, but long term he would move on from Intel and similar companies.

Has had a great run, but is -29% the past month. He keeps buying it, because the world is short of foundry space, which the Intel CEO knows how to make. Intel is different from Nvidia.

As demand for agentic AI explodes, demand for CPUs will also soar. CPU's are Intel's speciality. Also, their chip business is thriving. US companies seek a US-based supply to avoid political risk--another tailwind. Intel is building a new chip foundry and started production of an advanced chip, which could result in an Apple deal.

Since the current CEO took over a year ago, shares have rallied 321% and has given earnings surprises. This is one of the greatest turnarounds he's ever seen. Their high-end CPUs are essential to data centres. In a time of chop shortages, Intel has been building its US capacity. Their latest quarter was super, and they can't keep up with demand.

He'd selling some short-dated calls on this one ; you can get some good premiums on the volatility. You probably don't want to get called away, so keep an eye on it. If it keeps going up, just roll the strike price up and out.

He didn't trade it this week as it made new highs. He bought it last December at $40. Last Friday, it was in the $80s and held because momentum looked great. Next week, he may trade or do a covered call. It's a trade now. Sometimes you let it run--gosh, he hasn't seen a run like this.
He didn't trade it this week as it made new highs. He bought it last December at $40. Last Friday, it was in the $80s and held because momentum looked great. Next week, he may trade or do a covered call. It's a trade now. Sometimes you let it run--gosh, he hasn't seen a run like this.