Opinions
Michael Missaghie
InterRent REIT
IIP.UN-T
COMMENT
Mar 19, 2014
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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There is lots of value here due to a supply and demand imbalance leading to big growth in rents. There are 400 to 500 thousand new Canadians arriving annually in the next couple of years with not enough space for them. Also foreign students who stayed away during the first two years of the pandemic are returning
You won't go wrong with either. Thinks highly of management for both. Both are concentrated in Ontario. IIP.UN is smaller, more nimble, with a focus on Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal and a growing presence into Vancouver. CAR.UN gives exposure to GTA and across Canada. If he had to choose, he'd pick IIP.UN with its 25% discount to private market value, lots of value in the portfolio.
Once he realized interest rates weren't going to stay at zero, he scaled out of real estate from 22% down to 5%. He held onto industrials, but sold this one. Really likes the company, but is waiting until interest rates tick down again. Very interest-sensitive investments.
Long-term, yes, for residential REITs, like apartment ones. They also benefit from more immigration. This leads to higher rents. InterRent, Minto and CAP are his preferreds in this space. CAP is the biggest, and they hold a super-quality portfolio that they've been upgrading in recent years. All these are focused in Ontario. but they benefit from lower interest rates. A caveat: Ottawa is slowing immigration to Canada, which feeds demand for apartments. Expect choppiness, but these are good holds.
Compelling level. Pursues a value-added strategy, whereby you can get above-rent-control rents by improving properties. Great track record on this. Exposure to student population, with lower rents. Immigration question has unduly punished residential REITS. Over 20% discount to NAV, attractive.
It did miss cash flow per unit estimates in the Q3. Not by a lot, but a miss is a miss (15.9c vs 16.1c expected). The yield curve, despite Bank of Canada rate cuts, has still managed to shift upward. The recent government moves on immigration likely has some investors worried. Canada's population will actually likely decline for a couple of years now. Finally, IIP has had a premium valuation for some time. Even now it is above the peer group average at 17X cash flow. We would consider it a HOLD but it is getting interesting here. It historically has been one of the better REITs.
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An apartment REIT with majority of assets in south-western Ontario and Ottawa. Has a firm belief that management is going to drive value over time, both through acquisitions and redevelopment and repositioning of assets they have in their portfolio. Recent quarter was somewhat of a disappointment relative to the consensus numbers because of the repositioning of one of their key assets they purchased in Ottawa. With low leverage and a low payout ratio and a management team that is well aligned in the incremental growth you are going to get from redevelopment from some of the assets, he sees this as a core holding. Dividend yield of 3.6% and there is room for distribution increases from free cash flow growth.