Opinions
The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)
Headwater Exploration Inc.
HWX-T
PAST TOP PICK
Mar 28, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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The Calgary-based oil and gas producer focuses on slow declining long-life reserves in Marten Hills and New Brunswick. Recently reported earnings were up over 50% on the year. It trades at 11x earnings, 2.5x book and supports a 27% ROE. Its high dividend is supported by a payout ratio under 65% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $4.75, looking to achieve $9.00 -- upside potential over 35%. Yield 6.3%
(Analysts’ price target is $9.18)Great exposure to the WCS-WTI gap shrinking this year as the Transmountain becomes fully operational later this year. The 6% dividend will grow 10-15% this year, and they plan to grow overall by 50% over 2023. Strong cash flow as they expand. Interesting exploration plans. Fantastic results.
(Analysts’ price target is $8.88)We reiterate HWX as a TOP PICK. Management reports production remains on target for annualized production of 20,000 boe/d for 2024 and capital has been allocated on several projects for the balance of the year. It trades at 11x earnings and supports a 27% ROE. Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 65% of cash flow, which still allows quarterly cash flow to grow. We recommend trailing up the stop from $6.25 to $7.00, looking to achieve $9.00 -- upside potential of 20%. Yield 5.4%
(Analysts’ price target is $9.32)Our PAST TOP PICK with HWX has triggered its stop at $7. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with our previous recommendation this will result in a net investment gain of 2%.
Small-cap yielding 8%, sustainable in low $50s. Wouldn't be surprised if it dialed back capex, which makes the dividend even more sustainable. Almost a pure play to Clearwater, an exceptional resource. Owns in his income fund, on his list to add to the main fund. Inexpensive. Respected management.
Our PAST TOP PICK with HWX is progressing well. To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $4.75) to $6.25 at this time.