Stock price when the opinion was issued
Covid saw overspending by consumers, then underspending, now normalizing. Rising interest rates have affected lower-income US households, and that's showing up in HD traffic numbers. In US, over 50% of homes are over 40 years old; long-term secular trend to repair and modernize.
They just reported revenues a little light and EPS also missed, basically was flat YOY, but the quarter was still good. The misses were partly based on poor weather last quarter (a wet spring). Same-stores sales over the quarter locked flat, but was +3.1% in July after two flat months. Management is confident in its distribution centres and reiterated its full-year forecast. If interest rates fall (looking likely), it will only help the housing and home improvement market. The tariff hit will be minimized because many HD products are made in the US.
Trump tariffs will cause a decline in consumer spending. This is why Trump is pressing the Fed to cut interest rates to boost consumer spending. Lower rates will help anything connected to a home equity loan--therefore HD. This is why HD is rallying despite tariff pressure