Opinions
John O'Connell, CFA
Goldman Sachs
GS-N
PAST TOP PICK
Sep 18, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Of the big banks, they are the most levered to investment banking, including IPOs. He bought it expecting an uptick in IPOs under Trump, but his tariffs have temporarily derailed that. The IPO revival should happen if tariffs don't return. This pulled back hard since mid-February because of those tariffs, down 35%.
Is perfectly positioned for the tailwinds under the Trump presidency. After April's tariffs, corporate boards have been sitting and waiting, reluctant to do deals, but a strong capital market will eventually happen. Pays a good dividend and are very well-capitalized.
(Analysts’ price target is $596.61)The capital markets banks are all performing really well. That tells you something about the rest of the market; if investors are focusing on these banks, then they must have a view that lots of deals will be done and that capital markets provide a good opportunity. He'd buy more.
He's not a good trader. To paraphrase: "There are bull markets and bear markets, but at the end GS wins." We've seen that this quarter with respect to their trading profits. It's been a great way to play capital markets forever, and all the banks' capital markets divisions are doing well.
(Past Top Pick, June 14, 2017, Up 3%) His favourite US bank is Goldman Sachs. Trading at 10x earnings, at a discount to its peers; their earnings should grow 15%. They follow a well-diversified model. They won't increase share buybacks or capital, because they need the cash because they are growing so fast. Pays a dividend of 1.4%. They make money in difficult times. US banks as a whole have been stuck the past well, but GS has been doing everything right.