Opinions
Lorne Steinberg
General Motors Corporation
GM-N
DON'T BUY
Oct 02, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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He likes the carmakers. Trades at 4x forward PE. They're already making money (some companies are not). We don't know what will happen with tariffs, true, but tariffs on non-US carmakers will benefit the American ones. Sell the $45 put for April and collect $1.70.
(Analysts’ price target is $60.52)Ford and GM have some of the lowest PEs around (7.3x and 4.3x) vs. the 22x S&P average. Ford pays a 6.2% dividend yield, while GM has a huge buyback plan. Incredibly cheap--until the tariffs started. Remember: the car-makers were a huge reason why Trump used tariffs in his first term which lead to the USMCA trade deal. But now Trump wants to take away the qualities that made US cars competitive and affordable. Today, the car-makers got a one-month reprieve from Trump's tariffs and shares jumped. But if the car-makers wind up paying these tariffs, are we okay with the U.S. replacing cheap Mexican labour with expensive U.S. union labour? That's why these stocks are so cheap--their earnings are in grave danger. Value traps. A 25% tariff on Mexican imports is a subsidy for foreign car companies like Kia.
It's all about tariffs. Despite tariffs, GM's chart shows there is an escape hatch in the tariff war and GM will come out of it well. Valuation is a very cheap 6.8x enterprise value to EBITDA. Is a cash flow machine, with 20% of market cap is in buyback share mode. They recently increased their dividend. Are well managed. Best of breed. GM has done a nice pivot into EVs, though EV consumer adoption has slowed down, but will come back.
(Analysts’ price target is $62.48)
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He doesn’t own automotive stocks. From a valuation standpoint, GM looks really cheap, with a single digit multiple. It has suffered very much recently, as has the whole sector. Over time, the trend is reduced car demand with the increase in car sharing, high-speed trains and other public transport. Streets are way too busy. Millenials are not buying cars the way that previous generations have. This is a capital-intensive business. Even to move the fleet to electric motors requires many billions of dollars. It is too hard, and too expensive, for auto companies to keep up with world trends. There are better places for investors’ money.