Stockchase Opinions

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA Financial 15 Split Corp FTN-T DON'T BUY Nov 23, 2015

14.5% yield. Look back further than a couple of years. The averaged yield has been 3%. In the ’08 crisis they went from about $18 to about $2. He believes they are paying out capital gains in their underlying companies. In the last few years there was no crisis so there was little risk.

$10.030

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Financial Services
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DON'T BUY

It is a company invented by bankers. They take a collection of companies and package up the stocks and sell out preferred shares and capital shares. They sell call options to enhance the yield. They have to maintain a certain net asset value. The preferred shareholders are protected. You may suddenly get no yield some quarters. The fees and the risk are also high, as well as the yield.

COMMENT

As he understands how these split corps work, one gets the dividend and one gets the growth. It depends on what you want out of life. If you want street yield, these manufactured products might be right for you. He doesn’t buy them because he doesn’t like his clients to be paying 2 layers of fees. He isn’t against the product. Dividend yield of 14%.

COMMENT

Is the high-yield sustainable?As he understands it, this is a corporate finance, where they will take the common and preferred shares, and lever up the common 2 for 1 in terms of growth, and the preferred shares just get the yield. A very concentrated play on the direction of the underlying basket of common. If you believe those 15 stocks are something to be owning right now, you are going to get some good capital appreciation and the yield is safe. If you go into a bear market with the 15 stocks, your yield is not at all safe. This is not without risk.

DON'T BUY

He is not an expert on this holding. It has a strong yield (around 10%) that attracts many investors. During the 2016 market meltdown, it fell by about 50%. So he feels there must be leverage in this product. He suggests looking into the prospectus to better understand the leverage.

COMMENT

Look at risk events. How will this perform in a stress environment? In 2006, this ETF had a nasty drawdown, almost 30-40%. During a recession, would expect similar behaviour. Could be OK for next 6 months.

DON'T BUY
Would be concerned about the payout. Seeing a devaluation. He thinks the market’s already turned, but you see it in the financials first because of rising interest rates. The derivatives are the problem, especially with Deutsche Bank with lots of exposure to Italy and Turkey.
DON'T BUY
Uses leverage and if markets go into risk off, then it could be really bad. Incredibly volatile instrument. Not for the average investor. There is a big yield, but you need to be ready for significant volatility.
COMMENT
FTN vs. LBS An interesting structure, but they have their own at his shop. One is a play on ENB. Very optimistic about the potential for ENB to continue raising its dividend. He also has a real estate split with a mix of long-term value REITs and industrial exposure to access the e-commerce trend.
DON'T BUY

Leverage in security - good for traders, but not necessarily for retail investors.
Not the best way to get steady dividends. 
Good to buy at bottom of economic cycle.
Expect more volatility with this stock. 

DON'T BUY

Leverage allows them to provide such a large dividend. Typically 2:1 leverage, so you get double the bang for the buck. Lots of volatility, big ups and big downs. When markets are working, work great. Up to the board of the fund as to what distribution they pay out.

Over 20 years, you'd have done better just holding a basket of US or Canadian banks, such as XLF or ZEB.