Opinions
The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)
DREAM Unlimited Corp
DRM-T
TOP PICK
May 04, 2023
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Should one buy Dream, which pays no dividend and has dropped significantly in value or just buy its managed REITs and be happy with the 8% distribution? Really depends on your needs. If you need the
income or happy with the capital gains. This is the asset manager that manages the REITs. It also has a large land and development business in Calgary. Stock has dropped off significantly. Has been an under performer because home sales in Western Canada, especially in Saskatchewan and Calgary, have been disappointing so far. If you are talking long-term, this is the land in Western Canada for housing and he is sure you are going to be very fine. He could see some potential in this. It is below NAV and could stay that way for some time.
Land development company that also has a homebuilding business and builds condominiums. Their claim to fame has been, many years ago, going into provinces like Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba, getting a very low land cost base and gradually developing it over time. Thinks the stock has been far too beat up and near term prospects are very good. Has come off because of worries about real estate in Western Canada. Represents really good value here. He has been buying over the last 3-4 weeks.
He likes it over the long term. They are one of the largest land owners and developers in Saskatchewan. They are also active in Alberta. It is very discounted in the market today. They acknowledged that conditions going forward will be tough. He watches it closely. There is no particular catalyst in the near term.
Blackstone took over Dream Global, and DRM got a large cheque out of it in their holdings and asset management contract. They've since done a large issuer bid that that the biggest shareholder, the CEO, tendered into below NAV. So, the NAV has grown. DRM will benefit from lower interest rates. (Analysts’ price target is $14.00)
In Q3, DRM missed analysts’ EPS estimates of $0.19, coming in at $0.09. Revenue was up significantly in Q3 at $132.5M from $55.1M in the year prior driven by increases in recurring revenue. Adjusted funds from operations showed a large Q3 increase to $0.42 per share compared to the prior year at $0.08. DRM spoke positively regarding outlook for western Canada development which generated commitments for 2024 and 2025 in Q3. DRM displayed a solid Q3 and the markets have responded with price being up following the release.
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Likes real estate in general. In particular, likes those that are building their businesses; not the ones that are just collecting rents, paying dividends, and going sideways.
CEO is great and is investing in the company. Turning around. Sector will benefit from lower interest rates. Looked at this one, likes it, but not liquid enough for the size of position he wanted. He bought AP.UN and SRU.UN instead.
DRM holds 8200 apartment units and 13.7 million sq. feet of rental, retail and commercial property under its umbrella of various Dream REIT holdings. Most recent annual earnings showed a 53% increase in EPS aided by a growth in net margins. They plan to add another 3000 units over the next four years. It trades at 14x earnings and under book value. We recommend a stop-loss at $18, looking to achieve $36 -- upside potential over 60%. Yield 1.8%
(Analysts’ price target is $46.50)