Opinions
Charles Oliver, HBSc CFA
Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
DPM-T
COMMENT
Aug 05, 2014
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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DPM is now trading at 7.0x times' Forward P/E. In the 4Q, DPM’s revenue declined -8% to $152.9M, compared to last year of $166.4M and EPS wass $0.24, beating estimates of $0.20.
The balance sheet is strong, with net cash of $419M. Trailing twelve-month cash flow declined around -8% compared to $253M last year.
Based on consensus estimates, sales are expected to grow by 15%, while EPS is expected to grow by 28% next year.
The company has been executing really well.
The company has been growing and returning capital (dividends and buybacks) over the last few years, DPM also recently updated its three-year outlook with strong production levels – 270,000 per year, improved cost structures and lower capex spending.
We think the recent earnings report is solid.
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DPM's acquisition of Osino Resources is expected to add Osino's high-quality, long-life Twin Hills open pit gold project, as well as an extensive exploration portfolio in Namibia to DPM's existing portfolio of assets. The total purchase price is roughly $287M, funded through a mix of equity and cash. We think the deal will add value to the company as it's acquisition is in a mining-friendly jurisdiction.
DPM is a smaller company ($1.5B market cap), but its fundamentals are quite strong. It pays a dividend yield of 1.9%, and has a 4.5% buyback yield, for a shareholder yield of 6.4%. Its sales and earnings have grown nicely over the past several years, it has almost no debt, generates a good free cash flow yield of 11%, and has a strong balance sheet. If the price of gold continues to move higher, we feel that DPM is a fundamentally strong miner in the space, and can perform well in the coming years. We would be comfortable with DPM as a longer-term hold.
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Dundee is nowhere as large as Barrick, Franco Nevada or Agnico Eagle, which comprise a third of the Canadian materials sector, but it has outperformed it so far in 2024. Dundee shares have rallied 8.5% in this time period while Barrick is down over 16%. Also, Dundee holds more potential upside. Consensus sales estimates are 15% and EPS 28% for the coming year. Dundee's cash flow yield is a comfy 11%. Recently, the company bought Osino Resources to enhance its portfolio of gold operations.
Has a good mine. The main focus by the company over the last couple of years has been on their smelter. They have one in Namibia, which they were required to upgrade a couple of years ago to make it more environmentally friendly. Sort of at the tail end of getting that up and running. Good management.