Opinions
Keith Richards
Centene
CNC-N
WATCH
Nov 25, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Premium contentCNC provides healthcare to under-insured families and military personnel in the US. Healthcare is a sector expected to grow for years to come as the population ages. It trades at 1.6x book and 17x earnings. Cash reserves are growing as stock is aggressively bought back and debt is retired. We recommend placing a stop-loss at $63, looking to achieve $88 -- upside potential of 20%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $88.33)Premium contentWe reiterate CNC, a provider of healthcare to under-insured families and military personnel in the US as a TOP PICK. It continues to build cash reserves, while retiring debt and buying back shares. It trades at 16x earnings, under 2x book and supports a 10% ROE. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $63) to $72, looking to achieve $90 — upside potential of 16%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $89.64)Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with CNC has triggered its stop at $72. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 5%, when combined with our previous recommendation.
Tanked over 40% today because yesterday they withdrew their full-year forecast due to low sales on ACA (Obamacare) plans. Market growth in 22 states is lower than expected; expects a $1.8 billion reduction in expected risk-adjustment revenue transfers from Washington. Also expects a $2.75 hit to EPS this year. No wonder shares were hammered. Them and these are peers are paying out a lot more than they had expected. A major problem are fraudulent claims in ACA.
Support level has definitely been broken. Lower lows, lower highs. All that is negative technically. Looking at a 3-year chart, now testing support from 2023. If that can hold, it's not so bad a picture.