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The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)CF Industries Holdings Inc.CFTOP PICKSep 01, 2026

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

As one of the world's largest nitrogen producers, CF is well positioned for the continued global fertilizer shortage through 2027. Recently reported earnings showed strong free cash flow, with growing reserves and shares being aggressively bought back. Further production expansion is coming to further add to cash flow. It trades at 13x earnings and supports a robust 39% ROE. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $109, looking to achieve $160 -- upside potential of 18%. Yield 1.5%

(Analysts’ price target is $124.21)

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)

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$135.63

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$135.60

As of Sep 01, 2026. Market Open.

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BUY

He added more today. Are a North American producer of nitrogen, which is what Washington wants--reindustralization and returning supply chains to the US. Fundamentals and earnings were amazing as the dividend was raised. Trades at only 9-10x forward PE.

BUY

They just beat the top and bottom lines. The cheap natural gas in the US gives them an advantage over foreign peers. Trades at only 11x PE and increasing profits and cash flow. The dividend is also growing.

BUY

Up 68% in Q1 and one of the best performers on the S&P. Before the war there was the start of a bull market in agriculture. Then, the war created fertilizer shortages and this lifted shares.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jul 13/22, Down 14%)

Mid-cycle. Fertilizer stocks peaked in mid-2022. Deeply discounted. Farmer economics are as good as they've ever been. You'll see a return to using nitrogen, seeing recovery in the US. Momentum will build. Will benefit next year from higher nat gas prices putting pressure on marginal producers.

DON'T BUY

A fertilizer play which he kept saying would enjoy a boom year in 2022 after Russia invaded breadbasket Ukraine, which triggered food inflation. Farmers around the world invested heavily,including in fertilizer, to capitalize on higher crop prices. Russia and Belarus cannot supply potash fertilizer anymore. However, this is a short-term trade and you needed to sell this months ago. Own this now, and you're betting on a long-term war in the Ukraine, which he doubts will last because Russia is faltering badly.

TOP PICK

Largest nitrogen producer in the world, with majority being in NA. The two price drivers are gas prices and higher crop prices. Gas in NA is $6, while it's $30+ in Europe, so they benefit from the differential. With supply coming off, they can sell into a strong market. Yield is 1.88%. (Analysts’ price target is $107.26)

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 12/20, Up 46.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with CF has triggered its stop at $44. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. When combined with the previous recommendation to cover half the position, this results in a net investment gain over 38%. We will continue to monitor for another potential entry.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 12/20, Up 72.9%)Stochchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with CF continues to do well. We are now recommending to trail up the stop (from $28) to $44. If triggered, this would all but guarantee an investment return of 38% when considering the recommendation to cover 50% previously.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 12/20, Up 30.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK achieved its $39 objective. To be disciplined we are recommending to cover 50% of the position. We also recommend trailing up the stop to $28.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly CF is a global leading producer of fertilizer, whose stock price has retreated 40% this year. Demand for their product has been hampered during the pandemic as low commodity prices globally caused by pandemic has made farmers reluctant to commit to their normal spending. Their latest earnings reported a loss, when analysts expected a profit. However analysts next year expect earnings growth now of 16% reflected in a 6% increase in sales. A recent acquisition of Terra Industries is expected to help solidify their position in the market while demand in key market regions like India and Brazil already show signs of improvement. It pays a healthy dividend, backed by a 83% payout ratio. We would buy this with a stop-loss at $24, looking to achieve $39 -- 28% upside. Yield 3.93% (Analysts’ price target is $39.00)

COMMENT

Right at his model price of $269.92. Pays a 2.4% yield. Doesn’t think you get hurt in this, but he looks for value and there isn’t particularly much in this.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 9/11. Up 53.01%.) Benefits significantly on account of low cost natural gas.

SELL

Fertilizer company and he is not crazy about fertilizers right now as there has been some price weakness. These stocks are very volatile and if they get a whiff of declining prices they move down very quickly.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 9/11. Up 18.65%.) Biggest nitrogen fertilizer producer in North America. Can see it going to $150-$160.

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