Opinions Kevin Simpson
CF Industries Holdings Inc.CFBUYAug 14, 2026
Kevin SimpsonOwned
$118.30
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$118.06
As of Aug 17, 2026. Market Open.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 13/22, Down 14%)
Mid-cycle. Fertilizer stocks peaked in mid-2022. Deeply discounted. Farmer economics are as good as they've ever been. You'll see a return to using nitrogen, seeing recovery in the US. Momentum will build. Will benefit next year from higher nat gas prices putting pressure on marginal producers.
Dennis da SilvaOwned
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DON'T BUY
A fertilizer play which he kept saying would enjoy a boom year in 2022 after Russia invaded breadbasket Ukraine, which triggered food inflation. Farmers around the world invested heavily,including in fertilizer, to capitalize on higher crop prices. Russia and Belarus cannot supply potash fertilizer anymore. However, this is a short-term trade and you needed to sell this months ago. Own this now, and you're betting on a long-term war in the Ukraine, which he doubts will last because Russia is faltering badly.
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TOP PICK
Largest nitrogen producer in the world, with majority being in NA. The two price drivers are gas prices and higher crop prices. Gas in NA is $6, while it's $30+ in Europe, so they benefit from the differential. With supply coming off, they can sell into a strong market. Yield is 1.88%. (Analysts’ price target is $107.26)
Dennis da SilvaOwned
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Premium contentPAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 12/20, Up 46.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with CF has triggered its stop at $44. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. When combined with the previous recommendation to cover half the position, this results in a net investment gain over 38%. We will continue to monitor for another potential entry.
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Premium contentPAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 12/20, Up 72.9%)Stochchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with CF continues to do well. We are now recommending to trail up the stop (from $28) to $44. If triggered, this would all but guarantee an investment return of 38% when considering the recommendation to cover 50% previously.
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Premium contentPAST TOP PICK
Premium contentTOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly CF is a global leading producer of fertilizer, whose stock price has retreated 40% this year. Demand for their product has been hampered during the pandemic as low commodity prices globally caused by pandemic has made farmers reluctant to commit to their normal spending. Their latest earnings reported a loss, when analysts expected a profit. However analysts next year expect earnings growth now of 16% reflected in a 6% increase in sales. A recent acquisition of Terra Industries is expected to help solidify their position in the market while demand in key market regions like India and Brazil already show signs of improvement. It pays a healthy dividend, backed by a 83% payout ratio. We would buy this with a stop-loss at $24, looking to achieve $39 -- 28% upside. Yield 3.93% (Analysts’ price target is $39.00)
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick March 9/11. Up 53.01%.) Benefits significantly on account of low cost natural gas.
Prakash HariharanOwned
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick March 9/11. Up 18.65%.) Biggest nitrogen fertilizer producer in North America. Can see it going to $150-$160.
Prakash HariharanOwned
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TOP PICK
It is the go-to play on the Nitrogen side. Eventually you are going to see about 85-90 Million acres of corn planted in the US. As long as you have the Corn/Ethanol mandate and as long as the Chinese are going to import corn, you are going to need a lot of fertilizer. All the Agri stocks have pulled back due to the spike in oil. This company could generate $15-16 in earnings per share.
Prakash HariharanOwned
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TOP PICK
Agrium (AGU-T) is trying to acquire but has been refused to date because the prices too low. She is betting they will improve the bid by $10.
Veronika HirschOwned
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They just beat the top and bottom lines. The cheap natural gas in the US gives them an advantage over foreign peers. Trades at only 11x PE and increasing profits and cash flow. The dividend is also growing.