Opinions
Brian Acker, CA
CF Industries Holdings Inc.
CF-N
COMMENT
Dec 03, 2014
$269.990
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly CF is a global leading producer of fertilizer, whose stock price has retreated 40% this year. Demand for their product has been hampered during the pandemic as low commodity prices globally caused by pandemic has made farmers reluctant to commit to their normal spending. Their latest earnings reported a loss, when analysts expected a profit. However analysts next year expect earnings growth now of 16% reflected in a 6% increase in sales. A recent acquisition of Terra Industries is expected to help solidify their position in the market while demand in key market regions like India and Brazil already show signs of improvement. It pays a healthy dividend, backed by a 83% payout ratio. We would buy this with a stop-loss at $24, looking to achieve $39 -- 28% upside. Yield 3.93% (Analysts’ price target is $39.00)
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 12/20, Up 72.9%)Stochchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with CF continues to do well. We are now recommending to trail up the stop (from $28) to $44. If triggered, this would all but guarantee an investment return of 38% when considering the recommendation to cover 50% previously.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 12/20, Up 46.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with CF has triggered its stop at $44. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. When combined with the previous recommendation to cover half the position, this results in a net investment gain over 38%. We will continue to monitor for another potential entry.
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TOP PICK
Largest nitrogen producer in the world, with majority being in NA. The two price drivers are gas prices and higher crop prices. Gas in NA is $6, while it's $30+ in Europe, so they benefit from the differential. With supply coming off, they can sell into a strong market. Yield is 1.88%. (Analysts’ price target is $107.26)
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DON'T BUY
A fertilizer play which he kept saying would enjoy a boom year in 2022 after Russia invaded breadbasket Ukraine, which triggered food inflation. Farmers around the world invested heavily,including in fertilizer, to capitalize on higher crop prices. Russia and Belarus cannot supply potash fertilizer anymore. However, this is a short-term trade and you needed to sell this months ago. Own this now, and you're betting on a long-term war in the Ukraine, which he doubts will last because Russia is faltering badly.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 13/22, Down 14%)
Mid-cycle. Fertilizer stocks peaked in mid-2022. Deeply discounted. Farmer economics are as good as they've ever been. You'll see a return to using nitrogen, seeing recovery in the US. Momentum will build. Will benefit next year from higher nat gas prices putting pressure on marginal producers.
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Right at his model price of $269.92. Pays a 2.4% yield. Doesn’t think you get hurt in this, but he looks for value and there isn’t particularly much in this.