Shannon Saccocia, CIO, Boston Private
Best Buy Company Inc
BBY-N
BUY
Nov 23, 2022
She owns little retail. Her expectations for BB were so low, like a decline in same-store sales (10.5% decline this quarter, in fact) vs. expectations of a 13% decline. Better than expects, though it's not great. BB is used to managing their consumer electronics inventory, so BB's margins will be hindered compared to Target and Walmart are not as disciplined in managing their electronics inventory. So, there'll be compression in BB stores from promotional activity. Note: computer revenues this quarter are up 23% from Q4 2019, so consumer demand is still there, not dead. Don't forget the power of seasonal spending--and we're on the cusp of holiday spending. This bdoes well for November and December comps.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate BBY as a TOP PICK. The company has worked hard to streamline inventory systems, expand e-sales, and even leased out floor space to major brands to adjust growing inflationary pressure. It has inventory to supply gaming consoles and other key products heading into the holiday period. The stock trades at 9x earnings compared to peers at 36x. It pays a good dividend (which has grown for 18 consecutive years) and is backed by a payout ratio under 50% of cash flow. We recommend trailing up the stop-loss (from $50.00) to $62.50, looking to achieve $86 - upside over 26%. Yield 4.6% (Analysts’ price target is $86.13)
(A Top Pick Nov 17/22, Up 23.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BBY has achieved its $86.00 objective. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop-loss (from $62.50) to $70.00.
Made a ton of money during the pandemic. One of the better-run retailers, but can't see how this is a competitive advantage over the long term. Challenging times ahead with e-commerce everywhere, so he'd rather own the WMTs and AMZNs of the world.
(A Top Pick Nov 17/22, Up 0.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with BBY has triggered its stop at $70. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 11%, when combined with our previous recommendations.
They've had seven quarters of declining sales. When this reports, will BB get a Target-like market reaction (low expectations, beats, so a strong rally) or will BB get Amazon'd?
Reports this week. Electronics has been tough this past year, thought he thinks PC sales are bottoming. Despite paying a 5.5% dividend. Expect 1-2 more quarters of soft sales before this turns around.
It reports Thursday and it may not be that good, but Nvidia's Jensen Huang forecasts a new PC cycle. People buy PCs from BBY. Maybe buy BBY after this quarter.
It reports Thursday. Shares have been struggling, but Best Buy will benefit if the next wave of PCs integrate AI--this should be the biggest PC-refresh cycle in history. BBY is hurt by a lack of turnover in housing.
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