Jason Snipe, CIO, Odyssey Capital Advisors American Express AXP-N BUY Oct 18, 2024

Reported today but shares are down. They are being conservative. The US consumer was +12%, card fees 18%, NII 15%--all good numbers. Also, shares are up so much this year. A good story.

They have lots of runway: they issued 3.3 million new cards were issued last quarter with 80% to Millennials and GenZ. Don't trade, but invest in this.

Wall Street got their quarter wrong again. It hit $286, a new high, last Thursday, but tumbled 2.19% today. Revenues were in-line at 6% in their total spending in their cards, and expenses were 9% YOY, but below estimates, and they beat EPS, but they slightly trimmed their full-year revenue growth forecast, but Millennials/GenZ spending is up 12% YOY, the Boomers are flat while GenX is 4%. Delinquencies look good, not that bad. Wall Street didn't like their gradual slowdown in revenue growth.

Does not own shares, but does own Mastercard. Overall, a strong sector with move towards cashless society. Well positioned for the future. Would recommend holding. 

She just trimmed AmEx as part of typical prudent portfolio management. She bought this in 2019 at 14x PE and is now at 19x PE with 13% earnings growth for the next two years. If the market hits volatility, she's perfectly fine taking a little money off the table.

A bit more credit risk than other names. All the credit card companies are good, but he prefers and owns Visa.

It reports Friday. Every time it reports, the stock takes a hit that day, but AXP has had a juggernaut run in recent years.

Positioned higher on the socio-economic side than Visa or MA, so it doesn't have a lot of credit problems. Absolutely spectacular track record. Extremely profitable right through the entire financial crisis. Earnings growth at the 15% annualized level, trades at only 18x. Excess cash generation. Repurchased ~40% of stock in last 20 years. Yield is 1.17%, keeps jacking it up.

Also a core holding of his good friend Warren Buffett ;)

It reports Thursday. It trades on new card sign-ups, especially from young people and he expects that in the report. But careful: they usually trades badly in the morning of a report, then reverses. Listen to the call before deciding.