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Stockchase Discover American Express AXP-N BUY May 17, 2022

Allan Tong’s Discover Picks In fact, when AmEx reported its Q1 2022 in mid-April, it stated a 42% rise in business travel spending year-over-year and 121% in travel and entertainment spending. That T&E spend in March matched pre-pandemic levels. Further, sales leapt 29% year-over-year $11.8 billion, wiping out pandemic declines. Card-member spending fueled this surge and it made record monthly volumes in March. Its Delta Air Lines card has made all-time highs in terms of accounts, while its platinum cards also hit record numbers in Q1. Card fees grew 16% year-over-year with three million new cards added. The EPS came in at $2.18, well above the expected $1.87. Management forecast 18% to 20% revenue growth for the full year. “People are looking to get out there and travel,” sais CEO Stephen Squeri on his conference call. Read Summer stocks fun or summertime blues? 3 stocks to consider this summer for our full analysis.
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WATCH

It reports Thursday. It trades on new card sign-ups, especially from young people and he expects that in the report. But careful: they usually trades badly in the morning of a report, then reverses. Listen to the call before deciding.

BUY

He bought more $282. They target a young, aspirational person trying to get a gold card. Likes it.

BUY

Is a long term hold for her. Is slightly down for the year, but the earnings growth is remarkable, consistently 15-19%.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Seeing profit-taking now. Is up 30% for the year. They're firing on all cylinders.

BUY

Will lead in the coming year over Visa and Mastercard, because AXP has a younger demographic and not built into the PE. That said, they're all great companies and can't lose.

WAIT

It always sells into the report.  It reports Friday. Wait. Run by a great CEO.

BUY

Earnings and revenues beat, with a 20% jump in card fees. Their customers are high-end consumes who are still doing well (consumers are bifurcated, either doing well or struggling). Their delinquency rate is a superb 1.3%. Trades at only 18x earnings, with 14% earnings growth ahead.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Last Friday they reported a strong quarter, but shares still fell 2.3% and 1.6% today. They reported 7% billed business growth better than expected; revenues also beta. They reiterated 8-10% revenue growth and 12-16% EPS growth, full year. But they said that there was softer spending in airlines and lodging which spook investors. But AXP's delinquency rates are far below the industry average, Gen Z spending was +39% YOY while Millennial spending was +10%, and they added 3.1 million cards in Q2, 63% of which were Millennials or Gen Z.

BUY

It appears to be hitting an inflection point and is well below the market multiple.

BUY

Superb CEO. Is up 15% in the last 6 months, and made new highs today.