David Burrows Agco Corporation AGCO-N STRONG BUY Mar 22, 2002

15/20% growth at a 10% multiple.

David Burrows

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$22.300

Stock price when the opinion was issued

machinery

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BUY

Has done well. Expects farm equipment to continue to do well but forestry and construction equipment to back off.

DON'T BUY

Have done a very good job of consolidating the ice cube business. Was affected by poor weather in eastern states and southern Ontario. Would be more comfortable if more of their business was located in the south.

BUY

Great footprint in Latin America. Well-positioned and has great free cash flow. Accumulating market share away from John Deere and others.

COMMENT

Has risen 440% return since the CEO started in 2004 vs. S&P's 230%. In early-November, they delivered a blow-out quarter. A bull market in agriculture helps. Can the momentum continue?

BUY

Yesterday, they reported a strong earnings beat and beat sales, but they also reiterated their full-year forecast instead of raising it. 2023 could be another good year.

TOP PICK

Farm equipment manufacturer. Smaller competitor to DE, which he also owns. Trades around 9x next year's expected earnings. Reasonable debt. Expanding footprint. 58% of revenue comes from Europe, and this has weighed on stock, but it will pass. Farm prices are rising. Tech-enhanced equipment increases crop yields. Yield is 0.81%.

(Analysts’ price target is $154.17)

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Yesterday, they announced a 2025 forecast that was a tad short, but crop prices are in good shape, which encourages farmers to buy farming equipment. Shares are down 20% this year.

COMMENT

Agriculture has been struggling from geopolitical worries, low prices for key crops and high interest rates. They reported a revenue miss and earnings miss this month, but trimmed costs with a mixed forecast.

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David Burrows Agco Corporation AGCO-N STRONG BUY Mar 22, 2002

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