Barry Schwartz
Archer Daniels Midland Company
ADM-N
TOP PICK
Nov 04, 2010
One of the largest distributors of grains, crops and especially soybeans. China imports 55 Million tones of soybeans and can only produce 15 tones. Problem with soybeans is you can’t just throw more fertilizer on them, they need lots of water and China is a little short of water. Biggest risk is crop prices dropping. This quarter they couldn’t source grains from Russia. Over the long term this is a great place to be. Raised dividends 37 years in a row and is trading at a cheap valuation.
The CFO has been suspended due to questions around accounting. Also there have been operational problems. He got stopped out and replaced it with Deere, a long term buy, since he wants something in the agriculture space.
Does not own shares. Agriculture business that is a giant within sector. Tough business with low margins and high capital requirements. Lots of capacity for grain and seed crushing. Food additive business also growing. Better options available for investors in market.
They sold it and take profits, because they had accounting issues and could not file. When the fraud investigation was announced, shares were in the $80s and he expected it to bounce back. Instead, shares have fallen to $61. Sees no upside.
It's now breaking a long downtrend since late 2022. Investors have been dumping defensive stocks the last two months, but he's been adding defensive because they're on sale--and because a correction is looming. Are paid a 4-5% dividend.
Turning up after a downward trend. Likes the setup. Lots of the value guys he knows really like this name. Technicals are highlighting important inflection point.
Combining fundamentals and technicals is really powerful in your investment decision-making process. Helps to avoid value traps.