Stockchase Opinions

Robert Toole Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd AAV-T SELL Jan 18, 2007

This is a trust that he would sell sooner as opposed to later. Payout ratio of over 160% using cash flow and its capital expenditure.
$12.800

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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COMMENT
More bullish on oil than natural gas due to cap ex not growing. This winter was disappointing and gas is at a modest deficit in the US. Oil could head to $100 oil. More excited for the oil thesis.
BUY

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Not overly expensive with a market cap approaching $1B. Momentum is good. Growth is looking good this year and the sector is recovering. Would let this run for now. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
The real story with AAV is Entropy, which is a new carbon capture division they created. They have had some positive field trials. They have created a liquid that can extract CO2 more effectively and cheaper than before. You are also getting natural gas. In the service business, there is little exclusivity for techniques. Would own it for the Entropy. More bullish on oil than natural gas.
DON'T BUY
Almost entirely natural gas based company. Paying for premium on carbon capture technology involvement with Entropy. Not enough opportunity to justify investment. Better opportunities in oil weighted companies.
HOLD

Would consider selling stock given strength. Doesn't think Entropy is a strong business model (baked into energy price). Stock is expensive without Entropy value. Better names in sector. 

BUY

Likes it. CEO is committed and knowledgeable. Many decades of inventory. Good optionality to his bullish view on nat gas to 2025 and beyond. Key beneficiary of LNG Canada. Technically a 12% free cashflow yield, but really closer to 20%. Good upside, roughly $16 target, about 40% upside.

SELL

He's angry with their recent oily acquisition, just as people are warming up to natural gas. He sold. Can't agree with the company's strategy.

WAIT

Contains some natural gas, which tends to be weaker at this time. He'd wait till March on seasonality alone. Looking at the technicals it's moving around a lot, being driven by news. That makes the technicals challenging. Not a large-cap. Trending down, might base out.

WEAK BUY
Looking for an oil & gas producer, with long-term dividend growth.

The price of oil always gets pulled around. He likes the natural gas side a bit more -- it's been through a bear market for years and now coming out of that. Over time, increased ability to get nat gas offshore and the world needs it.

But if you go 100% natural gas it's more risky. So, be more diversified but with a tilt to gas. He likes names that are cheaper than they ought to be. For him that's ARX or, for more torque, AAV.

DON'T BUY

One of the worst energy names. The CEO and board did one of the word acquisitions in history. When the market wanted natural gas, they added liquids exposure. Are the worst-performing nat gas stock in North America. No upside. An activist has put members on the board.