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COMMENT
May 20, 2020
Market Outlook He thinks global crude oil inventories should begin to draw in July. When oil demand collapsed, it was estimated production was about 98 million barrels per day (bpd), whereas demand had shriveled to 65 million bpd. He expects oil demand to recover to 86 million bpd by then. In Q4 he expects demand back to 94 million bpd. Gasoline demand recovery was a little disappointing in the latest statistics, however. He thinks oil price recovery may be a little ahead of itself, because it is not until the second-half that we should see oil prices hit $40-$50. He expects 10 million bpd storage builds in May and 4 million bpd builds in June when storage availability is low. This could cause oil prices to plunge once again soon, perhaps below $20 for WTI. He is telling investors to hold off buying now, because he expects a retracement is yet to come for energy stocks. Be patient.
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Market Outlook He thinks global crude oil inventories should begin to draw in July. When oil demand collapsed, it was estimated production was about 98 million barrels per day (bpd), whereas demand had shriveled to 65 million bpd. He expects oil demand to recover to 86 million bpd by then. In Q4 he expects demand back to 94 million bpd. Gasoline demand recovery was a little disappointing in the latest statistics, however. He thinks oil price recovery may be a little ahead of itself, because it is not until the second-half that we should see oil prices hit $40-$50. He expects 10 million bpd storage builds in May and 4 million bpd builds in June when storage availability is low. This could cause oil prices to plunge once again soon, perhaps below $20 for WTI. He is telling investors to hold off buying now, because he expects a retracement is yet to come for energy stocks. Be patient.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 20, 2020
Oil sands differentials? The differential has widened back out towards $10 /bbl. If WTI prices drop below $20 again, like he expects to happen shortly, heavy oil producers will really struggle. He believes global oil stocks will again begin to build sharply when there is limited storage availability. It is not until Q4, when he expects oil demand to recover, will we see WTI get back towards $40. He does not like the comment against KXL by Biden, which makes him worried about this project. Canadian exports to the US have been dropping along with demand declines. He is not as optimistic on heavy oil as he is on light oil and condensate.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Oil sands differentials? The differential has widened back out towards $10 /bbl. If WTI prices drop below $20 again, like he expects to happen shortly, heavy oil producers will really struggle. He believes global oil stocks will again begin to build sharply when there is limited storage availability. It is not until Q4, when he expects oil demand to recover, will we see WTI get back towards $40. He does not like the comment against KXL by Biden, which makes him worried about this project. Canadian exports to the US have been dropping along with demand declines. He is not as optimistic on heavy oil as he is on light oil and condensate.