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COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2019
Market Outlook Q4 was the worst for the resource sector since 2008. It is now setting us up for a good 2019. WCS differentials are likely unsustainable at these tight levels around $9. He expects the WCS discount to be $20-$25 US/bbl and light barrels to be discounted by $10-$15 US/bbl range. About 325,000 barrels per day is curtailed as part of the Alberta government policy -- about what the market is long in Canada right now. Then when Enbridge Line 3 comes on around later in the year it will also be supportive. The US dollar has come of its peaks and he thinks this will help gold prices -- he thinks gold will get to $1350 US/oz. This will be good for gold stocks in 2019.
General Market Comment
January 9, 2019
Market Outlook Q4 was the worst for the resource sector since 2008. It is now setting us up for a good 2019. WCS differentials are likely unsustainable at these tight levels around $9. He expects the WCS discount to be $20-$25 US/bbl and light barrels to be discounted by $10-$15 US/bbl range. About 325,000 barrels per day is curtailed as part of the Alberta government policy -- about what the market is long in Canada right now. Then when Enbridge Line 3 comes on around later in the year it will also be supportive. The US dollar has come of its peaks and he thinks this will help gold prices -- he thinks gold will get to $1350 US/oz. This will be good for gold stocks in 2019.
Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager, Middlefield Capital Ltd.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2019
Positive going into 2019? He was cautious going into 2018, de-risking portfolios, as we approached the late stages of the economic cycle. Some of those concerns came home to roost in the fourth quarter. Prices, valuation, and sentiment are markedly lower. Risks and rewards are more balanced for 2019. Recession risk is still out there, but we could still have a soft landing, and we have a cushion with contraction of P/E multiples last year.
General Market Comment
January 9, 2019
Positive going into 2019? He was cautious going into 2018, de-risking portfolios, as we approached the late stages of the economic cycle. Some of those concerns came home to roost in the fourth quarter. Prices, valuation, and sentiment are markedly lower. Risks and rewards are more balanced for 2019. Recession risk is still out there, but we could still have a soft landing, and we have a cushion with contraction of P/E multiples last year.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2019
Seeing buying opportunities? Yes. They have a blank sheet every single day. If they wouldn't buy it today, they wouldn't own it.
General Market Comment
January 9, 2019
Seeing buying opportunities? Yes. They have a blank sheet every single day. If they wouldn't buy it today, they wouldn't own it.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2019
Market vs. US Fed. The minutes are signalling a certain amount of discord on the committee, which is not unusual. The vote needed to be unanimous to demonstrate solidarity and stand up to the bullying White House. Foreshadowing of less hawkishness going forward.
General Market Comment
January 9, 2019
Market vs. US Fed. The minutes are signalling a certain amount of discord on the committee, which is not unusual. The vote needed to be unanimous to demonstrate solidarity and stand up to the bullying White House. Foreshadowing of less hawkishness going forward.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2019
Canadian interest rates staying put. Represents the totality of all market conditions. It's more complex than just one variable. Extent of credit, bond yields rising, equity conditions all have an impact. When the markets, bank lending channels, and bond market are doing some of the tightening for you, you can take your foot off the brake.
General Market Comment
January 9, 2019
Canadian interest rates staying put. Represents the totality of all market conditions. It's more complex than just one variable. Extent of credit, bond yields rising, equity conditions all have an impact. When the markets, bank lending channels, and bond market are doing some of the tightening for you, you can take your foot off the brake.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2019

Housing starts weren't as low as expected. Only one month of data, need to see more data before you can call a trend. Starts are only a fraction of the housing market. More importantly, prices are coming down which  affects the banks' mortgage books, so this will be a headwind.

General Market Comment
January 9, 2019

Housing starts weren't as low as expected. Only one month of data, need to see more data before you can call a trend. Starts are only a fraction of the housing market. More importantly, prices are coming down which  affects the banks' mortgage books, so this will be a headwind.

Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council