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COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2019
Market. It's a tough market. Economic data points in Europe, and Germany specifically, are getting worst. PMIs are on a downtrend and cruising to contraction territory. Weakening in China. It's a been a long great run but the economics underpinnings are weakening. Historically when looking at the yield curve spread and recessions, when the yield curve inverses that means you are on average about 18 months from recession. The 1-2 year spread has inverted, the 2-5 year spread is just on 0 bip today and is inverting. The yield curve is flat or inverted. We are on borrowed time. You can still find spots to invest in, but we haven't seen any reversal yet. Sometimes sitting on your hands is the hardest thing to do, but sometimes it's the right thing to do if you don't want to lose your capital.
General Market Comment
January 8, 2019
Market. It's a tough market. Economic data points in Europe, and Germany specifically, are getting worst. PMIs are on a downtrend and cruising to contraction territory. Weakening in China. It's a been a long great run but the economics underpinnings are weakening. Historically when looking at the yield curve spread and recessions, when the yield curve inverses that means you are on average about 18 months from recession. The 1-2 year spread has inverted, the 2-5 year spread is just on 0 bip today and is inverting. The yield curve is flat or inverted. We are on borrowed time. You can still find spots to invest in, but we haven't seen any reversal yet. Sometimes sitting on your hands is the hardest thing to do, but sometimes it's the right thing to do if you don't want to lose your capital.
Cameron Hurst
Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2019
The Q4 sell-off caught many by surprise, and a lot of it was due to politics. The US Fed was tightening too quickly. Now, we have an opportunity where companies are much cheaper. We could see a little more downside but he's more optimistic now than in the past few years. The U.S. markets are acting like the U.S. economy is an island, untouched by the rest of the world. That was so in the 1940's, but not now. If China goes into recession, the impact will be huge for America (farmers, tech companies like, say, IBM). If Europe slows, it'll hurt the U.S. too. He needs to see one more interest rate hike in the U.S. to buy into emerging markets (telcos look attractive now). He's pivoting from growth to defensives. Samsung posted numbers today and slipped a bit. It's still too expensive for him. Semi-conductors are part of the phone business, which if it slows down, will directly impact semis. Apple is seeing peak-phone sales. But he's still watching Samsung.
General Market Comment
January 8, 2019
The Q4 sell-off caught many by surprise, and a lot of it was due to politics. The US Fed was tightening too quickly. Now, we have an opportunity where companies are much cheaper. We could see a little more downside but he's more optimistic now than in the past few years. The U.S. markets are acting like the U.S. economy is an island, untouched by the rest of the world. That was so in the 1940's, but not now. If China goes into recession, the impact will be huge for America (farmers, tech companies like, say, IBM). If Europe slows, it'll hurt the U.S. too. He needs to see one more interest rate hike in the U.S. to buy into emerging markets (telcos look attractive now). He's pivoting from growth to defensives. Samsung posted numbers today and slipped a bit. It's still too expensive for him. Semi-conductors are part of the phone business, which if it slows down, will directly impact semis. Apple is seeing peak-phone sales. But he's still watching Samsung.
Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2019
WCS differential shrinking & outlook Alberta limiting supply is only a temporary measure. Much better is building a pipeline, but that requires a lot of political will and cooperation.
General Market Comment
January 8, 2019
WCS differential shrinking & outlook Alberta limiting supply is only a temporary measure. Much better is building a pipeline, but that requires a lot of political will and cooperation.
Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2019
Which Japanese tech stock to buy? Nippon Telecom (NTT) that is a growth story that he owns, or Softbank which is a great performer.
General Market Comment
January 8, 2019
Which Japanese tech stock to buy? Nippon Telecom (NTT) that is a growth story that he owns, or Softbank which is a great performer.
Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross