S&P 500 has been down 13% from the September high. We want to hold the February lows at 2,530 and now we're barely above that. Indicators say the market is really oversold, even though some economic numbers are really good like retail sales and the China-US tensions are seeing a detente. If the market can bounce off the 2,500 low it's very good news. The equity put call ratio is at elevated levels--there's a lot of hedging going on. Everything is set up to have a great run, but fear and greed can push the market even lower. That said, all we need are a few days of positive push to have a good, few months. He's guardedly bullish.
Why is the price of natural gas rising, but this stock is declining? There's not always a correlation between natural gas prices and these stocks. BIR has a $2.80 support level, but nat gas' seasonality just ended. We need to see BIR hold its current level. He expects investors to step in here.
Seasonality should be kicking in for Canadian banks. CM needs to hold at $110, though historically its current $105 is a bottom. The banks and CIBC are very oversold. If CIBC breaks belwo $105, it could fall to the high-$90s.
Gold outlook? Gold seasonality is kicking in right now. Also note that the U.S. dollar should start to roll over now. Gold stocks are starting to move up. Gold looks gold now. $1,252 resistence. Barrick is a good play. Next resistance is at $20, then $23. If he didn't own Kirkland Lake, he'd buy this.
A trend around $56 earlier this year. The other level is the current $45 range. The market is stepping in now for all lifecos. SLF just had a sudden move bouncing up from $43 as buyers come in. The $45 level is solid.
The 50-month moving average is around $48, and now we're seeing buyers are coming in (he expects buyers to enter the overall market). Good risk-to-reward now.
(A Top Pick Jan 03/18, Down 23%) He'd buy this one today. One of the best base metals around. Found support around $10 early this year. The China-US trade dispute is a problem. Late-October saw a low, then a low in late-November. Now, there's good risk-to-reward in base metals. Good value. There's resistance around $12, but if it gets through that it'll revisit highs of $15.
(A Top Pick Jan 03/18, Down 5%) US banks have a fared a bit better than Canadian ones. A long-time base around $100 for JPM. A good risk-to-reward is being set up now. Seasonality is happening now. Limited downside and much upside.
How does a dividend effect tech analysis? Tech analysis encompasses all knowledge. He marries it with fundamentals and seasonality. The dividend is reflected (asorbed) in the price of a stock. $48.59 was a breakdown in January, and will be a resistance going forward. The next level down is $40.30 where he expects support. $38 is the next level down. It'll trade in the $38-40 range.
It's had a nice trend up this year. It'll see reisistance around $20 to a lower range of $16. There could be volatility. Now, we're in no-man's land. Seasonally, now is good. You may have to weather big swings as it marches to $21.
Trading band of $21.50-28.50. It fell to a low of $18 at the start of 2016. He wants to see its low hold around $19. It it hits $21.50, he'd expect a quick jump to the middle of that band. But he doesn't see a catalyst and needs to see if there's be a move in interest rates tomorrow.
PD has done relatively well, considering the drillers have been hammered in this sell-off. Need to see this hold at $2.80. There's been heavy tax-loss selling in oil. Don't step until January. See if resistance holds.