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COMMENT
December 18, 2018
S&P 500 has been down 13% from the September high. We want to hold the February lows at 2,530 and now we're barely above that. Indicators say the market is really oversold, even though some economic numbers are really good like retail sales and the China-US tensions are seeing a detente. If the market can bounce off the 2,500 low it's very good news. The equity put call ratio is at elevated levels--there's a lot of hedging going on. Everything is set up to have a great run, but fear and greed can push the market even lower. That said, all we need are a few days of positive push to have a good, few months. He's guardedly bullish.
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General Market Comment
December 18, 2018
S&P 500 has been down 13% from the September high. We want to hold the February lows at 2,530 and now we're barely above that. Indicators say the market is really oversold, even though some economic numbers are really good like retail sales and the China-US tensions are seeing a detente. If the market can bounce off the 2,500 low it's very good news. The equity put call ratio is at elevated levels--there's a lot of hedging going on. Everything is set up to have a great run, but fear and greed can push the market even lower. That said, all we need are a few days of positive push to have a good, few months. He's guardedly bullish.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 18, 2018
Tomorrow's last rate decision by the U.S. Fed: It'll likely increase by 25 basis points. If Powell doesn't do it, it'll be a downer. What they'll likely do for 2019 is a wait-and-see approach, which is fine. Instead of 3-4, it'll likely be 1-2 hikes. We got a reprieve on today's markets, but we won't get a Santa Claus rally this year. Market sentiment is terrible. Earnings momentum has rollen over; it will go up in 2019, but at a lower rate than this year. Another question mark is the China-US trade war. Liquidity gets tight in December. Money is coming out of the stock market in December this year with few buyers this year.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
General Market Comment
December 18, 2018
Tomorrow's last rate decision by the U.S. Fed: It'll likely increase by 25 basis points. If Powell doesn't do it, it'll be a downer. What they'll likely do for 2019 is a wait-and-see approach, which is fine. Instead of 3-4, it'll likely be 1-2 hikes. We got a reprieve on today's markets, but we won't get a Santa Claus rally this year. Market sentiment is terrible. Earnings momentum has rollen over; it will go up in 2019, but at a lower rate than this year. Another question mark is the China-US trade war. Liquidity gets tight in December. Money is coming out of the stock market in December this year with few buyers this year.