The question also asked about his opinion in general on copper. He likes copper which is the most important of the metals and is therefore in great demand. The price of copper has been hit by tariffs. It is hard to predict the price by random events and the Trump effect. Freeport McMoran is in the U.S. so it has that plus.
The question was on his outlook for oil and gas. He feels that gas is likely to stay flat for a while. The full production of LNG is not ramping up for 8 to 9 months. Oil as a global fuel has a low growth forecast of around 2.5%. There is an appetite in international markets for natural gas. In Canada it trades at a premium to Europe. Coal production in the U.S. is in decline and being replaced by natural gas. Natural gas is a transition fuel to the full use of clean energy and will be around for quite some time.
The question was on crude oil. OPEC has brought on some production but the worry is that the discipline with restraint hasn't been there. Globally the traditional bases are rolling over and he is bullish on Canadian energy. Oil is not renewable and he sees a slight decline in the U.S., Russia, and Mexico too. The western basins are not in the same struggle as others and we are sitting in the crown seat. Getting it out of the ground is what hampers us and that needs to improve. Trump's tariffs on Russia and India help.
There has been a decline in recent weeks due to lower revenue but the bottom line was not impacted and met expectations. There was an over-reaction to the report so it has become a buying opportunity, now trading at half below its norm for the past 5 to 10 years. It is one of the premium names in the insurance space and has very solid fundamentals.
The caller asked if she should continue to keep it as 10% of her portfolio. His concern is that 10% is too high and should be dropped by half to 4 or 5%. No stock should take up 10% of a portfolio. The company itself is a great one: stable and solid with a long history of dividends and modest growth.
He wouldn't buy it today. It is expensive with a greater multiple than Metro or Empire. It is low margin business and can be considered a defensive stock. Costco is a great name in the space. The question also asked his opinion on buying it before or after the split. He would probably buy it before.
It is a really good name to own and is a champion in Canadian equities. He is not concerned about a dwindling number of software companies for it to buy and feels there are still plenty.