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The "liberation day" global tariff regime kicking off bilateral tariffs would have been a surprise to anyone. The whittling down of the tariff regime incrementally over time is the other surprise. 

If we take a step back, what's interesting is that we've gone from speculation of a really tough tariff regime being fully priced in to the other direction, where a benign outcome is fully priced in. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, where you have to have an eye towards caution but also towards opportunity.

Reading the tea leaves and listening to the rumour mill, it seems that China's let a few imports be exempt from tariffs and the same with the US. Think of it as a "Swiss-cheesing" effect on the effect of tariffs. This is either the way it will be, or just green shoots in the entire conversation.

The market's interpreting it as green shoots, whereas it might be building up domestic resilience for the longer haul.

The best way to think of it is in stages: initial euphoria, experimentation, and then implementation. In the midst of earnings season, the hyperscalers have spoken to strong demand for AI-related workloads. They've also stood behind their capex forecasts. 

So this earnings season, one of the big stories has been the big sigh of relief for those selling equipment to the big cloud companies. There is AI demand, but we don't know if we're at the stage of experimentation or implementation. As with any technology, it will permeate our lives to a greater extent with time. You have to know that you're buying companies that are relevant to that at the right valuation. Understand that profit pools in tech can be fleeting, just as in every other sector.

Avoid. Firmly in the land of long-term turnaround, which is risky. Sold assets. Foundry business relies on government support. Design business doesn't quite fit future directions of data centres and personal computing. Look at TSM.

Offers you what INTC can, but without the risk.

Well run, deposit footprint's OK. Probably more domestic options available that are equally high quality. Beneficiary of globalization, which is starting to move in a different direction. In the US, try JPM or BAC, or BNP in Europe.

High quality. Globalization is starting to move in a different direction, so this option provides a more domestic focus.

High quality. Globalization is starting to move in a different direction, so this option provides a more domestic focus.

High quality. Globalization is starting to move in a different direction, so this option provides a more domestic focus.

Seeing a major reorienting of global trade flows. Data on container shipments is already quite choppy. But over time, there was already a "China +1" strategy happening in global trade. For example, AAPL last night was talking about how they're building more of their iPhones in India. 

In general, this makes you less sensitive to one bilateral trade corridor. 

HON is a different conversation. Decades ago, we went through the big industrial conglomerate phase. Now we're in the specialization phase. The segments are already functioning well; it doesn't need the overhaul that GE was desperate for.

He's far less constructive on defense stocks than he was a few months ago. Europe is by far the best place to be in the grand scheme of things. European defense budgets are rising significantly, in a way we haven't seen in a generation or even two.

For example, Germany used to spend less than 2% of GDP on defense. Now moving closer to 3% and greater. He's chosen to play the space through RHM.

Domestic leader in Germany that captures a big share of Germany's defense spending budget. Vertically integrated, multi-platform. For the long term. 90% defense, 10% engineering.

Less constructive on defence in the short term, but buy on dips for the long term. European defense budgets are increasing significantly. A long-cycle industrial.

Less constructive on defence in the short term, but buy on dips for the long term. European defense budgets are increasing significantly. A long-cycle industrial.